Notes on the air war against ISIL

Brian M Downing The air war over Germany in WWII lasted five years and its effectiveness is debated to this day. Nonetheless, after five weeks of airstrikes, many analysts and politicians are already judging the air campaign against the Islamist State to be a failure. This may be in large Read More …

Counterinsurgency in Iraq – and its consequences

Brian M Downing Most accounts of the Second Gulf War (2003-11) attach significant importance to the US’s adoption of counterinsurgency doctrine in ending the Sunni insurgency there. The shift away from conventional warfare to winning hearts and minds is said to have changed the course of the war and brought Read More …

The battle of Anbar and the future of Iraq and al Qaeda

Brian M Downing  The Iraqi province of Anbar, which lies to the west of Baghdad and leads to the border with Syria, has been the scene of momentous historical events over the last decade. It was the site of fierce resistance to US forces and later a short-lived alliance between Read More …

Toward a second front in Syria?

Brian M Downing The Obama administration is reluctantly upping its involvement in the Syrian civil war. Though the White House offers few details, reports indicate that American personnel will arm and train teams of rebel fighters on Jordanian territory, then send them across the border to fight the Assad government.  Read More …

Workin’ in a Data Mine, Going down, down, down

Brian M Downing  In recent days we have learned of the secretive National Security Agency’s engagement in data-mining the Verizon system. Yesterday we learned that NSA was doing the same in a few other cyberplaces, including Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, Facebook, PalTalk, AOL, Skype, YouTube, and Apple. I can only wish Read More …

The Battle of al Qusayr and Syria’s dim future

Brian M Downing The Assad government, having lost control of large swathes of the country and deemed near collapse only a few months ago, has put together a surprising counteroffensive. The operation seeks to reestablish the ground route between the capital Damascus and the Mediterranean coast, where the regime’s Alawi Read More …

Did counterinsurgency work in Iraq?

Brian M Downing Most accounts of the Second Iraq War (2003-11) attach great importance to counterinsurgency programs in ending the conflict there. The shift from using heavy firepower to winning hearts and minds is said to have created a “Sunni Awakening,” which changed the course of the war and brought Read More …

The Taliban spring offensive – what to watch for

Brian M Downing After the absence of meaningful discussions with the Taliban over the winter, the latter’s spring offensive has begun, chiefly with a wave on IED attacks but also a sizable ground attack in eastern Afghanistan.  The new fighting season comes amid reports of widespread war-weariness in the country Read More …

The Egyptian military and politics – and Saudi ambitions

Brian M Downing The Egyptian generals stand to come out of the present crisis more powerful than before, if they play it right. The old regime – Mubarak’s regime – comprised family cliques, business oligarchs, and the army elite. Two years ago, the army objected to Mubarak’s son as president-in-waiting Read More …