Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Qatar and Russia discuss Syria This is welcome though not especially promising. Russia of course is the most powerful backer of the Assad government; Qatar is an important backer of the Muslim Brotherhood and several rebel groups backed by the Brotherhood. It’s difficult to see any formula for peace. The Read More …
The price of oil has fallen more precipitously than analysts thought possible. In July 2014, Brent crude went for $115/bbl on the spot market. Today, it’s under $30/bbl. With Iran selling even more crude than expected now that sanctions are coming off, some analysts see the price dropping below $20, Read More …
Syrian Druze pursue neutrality The Druze are a religious minority in southern Syria, also in Israel and elsewhere. They have been wooed by the Assad government, which claims it is secular and not given to religious extremism, and by Israel. which wants a buffer state. The Druze are generally not heeding Read More …
Kurds prepare for Mosul campaign Peshmerga troops are positioned to Mosul’s north, east, and west. They assert they are prepared to take part in the liberation of the city, but the Iraqi army, which is supposed to take positions to the south, is holding things up. Why are the Kurds seeking Read More …
US special forces unit arrives in Iraq The US has conducted at least two commando-style attacks on ISIL in the last year. Look for more of them. Such operations make ISIL rear areas anything bus safe and force it to take combat troops off the long frontlines in both Syria Read More …
Oil at $10 a barrel? Oil prices have been sinking for well over a year now and have reached $30/bbl, down from about $90 in 2014. This is of course due to less demand in the world and also from rising US production. Low prices will gravely hurt oil-producing countries Read More …
Blast rocks Istanbul An explosion has taken place in a tourist area of Istanbul, not far from the renowned Blue Mosque. Speculation holds that ISIL is responsible. Many of the ten deaths are German tourists. It’s possible the Germans were specifically targeted as their country has recently begun flying recon missions Read More …
Saudi oil industry to go public? Riyadh has hinted that it may sell shares in its oil company. It’s unlikely that the entire industry will go public as that would open the door to foreign influence in the economy and state. This is a sign that the Saudis are facing Read More …
North Korea detonated a sizable explosion this week. Pyongyang claimed it was a thermonuclear bomb but experts think it unlikely. Whatever the nature of the explosion, it has alarmed many East Asian countries and western ones too. This is what it was intended to do. The detonation is part of Read More …
ISIL attack on Haditha continues Trying to regain the initiative and to slow down an impending attack on Mosul, ISIL is besieging a military base in western Anbar. They have tracked with large vehicle-borne explosive, as they did when they took Ramadi last May. Thus far, the tactic has not brought Read More …