Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Wars end in different ways, though some go on and on. After World War Two both Germany and Japan were completely defeated by victorious armies. Their armies were disbanded, leaders put on trial, and political systems fundamentally changed. That will not happen in the Russian war on Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia is planning an offensive in coming months. As noted earlier, the plan seems unwise to say the least. It’s based on dubious reports from below, official concerns in the state, and nationalistic cant all around. Cautious military analysis doesn’t seem to have figured. Shifting from hopes Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia is planning a major offensive this spring. It’s drafting hundreds of thousands more men, sending considerable amounts of materiel to rear areas, and pressuring Belarus to enter the war. Putin has even appointed a new commander for the new operations in Ukraine – his loyal army Read More …
Brian M Downing The ground war has slowed significantly since the Ukrainian successes around Kharkiv and Kherson. Autumn brought rain and mud, winter snow and ice. Nonetheless, Russia has persisted in trying to take Bakhmut in the east. In recent days attacks have focused on Soledar, just to the north, Read More …
Brian M Downing No country is in more need of military reform than Russia. That became clear a month into the Ukraine war and there’s been no discernible change. Putin built a Potemkin army. BTGs are poorly trained hordes motivated by prospects of glory, mayhem, and pillage. This leads to Read More …
Brian M Downing War is bringing turmoil and instability to Russia. Putin faces trouble from westernized youth, religious and ethnic minorities, army reformers, and unruly Mobiks. The opposition is unlikely to topple the state but it could bring low-level violence that will distract attention and divert resources amid a failing Read More …
Brian M Downing Defeat, imminent or actual, brings discontent, strife, assassination, secession, and breakdown. The Afghan state lost control in 1979 and decades of civil war and fragmentation have ensued. The German army disintegrated late in WWI. Militias clashed in cities, politicians were murdered, and Bavaria tried to secede. A Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin is facing defeat in Ukraine and that will bring deep turmoil to Russia. He will confront opposition from elites and the public. He may be ousted or he may use his considerable wiles to stay in power. Four scenarios will be looked at in this series: Read More …
Brian M Downing Wars build states and bring them down as well. Most states were built on and base their legitimacy on military victory. That was true in Charlemagne’s day, Napoleon’s, and Stalin’s too. Defeat, even without surrender or foreign occupation, undermines governments. The French state was staggered by losses Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s army has been defeated at Kyiv, the Donbas, Kharkiv, and now Kherson. It’s no longer capable of offensive operations and may be incapable of holding anywhere along the expansive but receding front. Russia will be fortunate if winter halts Ukrainian operations. Either way, the Russian army Read More …