Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing This morning ethnic Russian soldiers of the Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL), backed by Kyiv, crossed into Russia’s Belgorod region, north of central Ukraine. The force, perhaps two battalions of ethnic Russians, claim to be establishing a buffer area just south of Belgorod to push Russian artillery Read More …
Brian M Downing The long-awaited Ukrainian offensive may have begun near Bakhmut. It comes after weeks of attacks on Russian depots in the east and inside Russia itself. Expectations vary. Kyiv cautions that the offensive might not be as formidable as thought. Many outside analysts think it will be highly Read More …
Brian M Downing A Ukrainian offensive is coming. When and where aren’t known. The view here has been that, after probes and feints, a drive into the land bridge will come. This could split Russian forces in the south in two, force a major battle, and endanger the Crimean peninsula. Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia and China now see the war isn’t ending soon but feel time is on their side. They believe democracies are deeply flawed and no longer have the will and martial spirit of modern authoritarian governments, especially those in Moscow and Beijing where dissent and diversity aren’t Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s winter offensive continues. Wagner Group and airborne forces are pressing attacks around Bakhmut – north and south of it as well. They are seizing little ground but taking high casualties. Last year Ukraine took Russian punches in a manner likened here to Muhammad Ali’s “rope-a-dope” strategy Read More …
Brian M Downing Iran slipped in importance when Russia invaded Ukraine. The mullahs and generals have returned to center stage, nudged by allies and enemies but mostly on their own. They have crushed dissidents, supplied Russia with weapons, and enriched uranium near weapons-grade levels. The advancing nuclear program makes attacks Read More …
Brian M Downing China will one day have the strongest economy in the world. But without a powerful, aligned Russia, it can only be a regional military power. No Russian ally, no Chinese preeminence. Everyone’s watching Putin’s offensive which he believes will turn the tide. China is watching more keenly Read More …
Brian M Downing China and Russia, though enemies for centuries, have aligned to weaken the West and create a new world order dominated from Beijing and Moscow. Putin discussed the Ukraine war with his partner not long before he crossed the border a year ago. Xi is the senior partner, Read More …
Brian M Downing The view here has been that longstanding flaws and high casualties have rendered the Russian army incapable of meaningful offensive operations. Undaunted, Moscow has rallied the nation with WW2 analogies, drafted hundreds of thousands of men, and positioned them for attack. A winter offensive is underway, seeking Read More …
Brian M Downing The Ukraine war has gone badly for Russia. This isn’t widely admitted in Moscow, especially in the upper echelons. Russia’s response hasn’t been to reform its inept army, as did Prussia amid the Napoleonic wars and Japan against western imperialism. Putin et al aren’t looking to the Read More …