Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Ukrainian intelligence has been warning that N Korean troops are training in the Russian Far East for deployment in Ukraine. American intelligence now believes that some 10,000 N Korean soldiers, in Russian uniforms, are heading into the war. Moscow will likely be giving Pyongyang missile and nuclear Read More …
Brian M Downing The Russian invasion of Ukraine is one of the clearest cases aggression since the Third Reich attacked Poland. Nonetheless, or predictably, responsibility is debated, with some asserting that NATO expansion to the east is to blame. This of course is the Kremlin’s position. It’s been picked up Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s drive on Kharkiv earlier this year showed early promise but came to a halt. As with previous attempts to regain the initiative, around Bakhmut for example, it took little ground and incurred tens of thousands of casualties. This week Ukraine crossed into Kursk, a Russian province Read More …
Brian M Downing The Ukraine war has taken a new turn. Russia blunted Ukraine’s summer offensive and made slight advances in the center. It has now shifted to the north and begun driving on Kharkiv. Advances have been significant. Russia came close to taking the city at the opening of Read More …
Brian M Downing Vladimir Putin, then a junior KGB enforcer, saw the Soviet Union’s collapse as a geopolitical catastrophe. Most of the world deemed it a blessing, especially Eastern Europe which had endured Moscow’s rule since 1945. Another geopolitical shift may be coming. The view here has for some time Read More …
Brian M Downing The view here has long been that the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private mercenary army, would cause trouble for Russia. Private armies and elite forces create tensions with the regular army, as with the Waffen SS and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. They may become too independent of the Read More …
Brian M Downing Speculation about Russia resorting to nuclear weapons has gone on since the invasion stalled and embarrassing setbacks followed. No definite answer can be given. Putin himself might not know for sure yet. It doesn’t seem implausible. Mutually assured destruction kept nuclear weapons in the silos during the Read More …
Brian M Downing Kyiv confirms that its long-awaited offensive has begun. The main attack is in Zaporizhzhia, as predicted here last year (http://www.downingreports.com/feint-and-opportunity-on-the-southern-front/). Units are moving south into the Russian-occupied land bridge along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. The offensive probably has three phases: driving a wedge between Read More …
Brian M Downing Flooding has been used in war for centuries. The Dutch broke dikes to hold back Louis XIV’s invasions. The Germans flooded the same region to slow the Allies late in World War Two. The latter was a war crime. So is Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin has successfully mobilized nationalist passions from the Great Patriotic War and deployed them into a failing war. It’s his only notable success. The ideological monolith, built on Stalingrad and Berlin and used for decades to awe the public, revitalized a hapless army and buoyed national support. The Read More …