Outcome scenarios in the sectarian wars: protracted stalemate, part two

Brian M Downing  Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s and took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but picked up Read More …

Outcome scenarios in the sectarian wars: protracted stalemate, part one

Brian M Downing  Sectarian conflict, chiefly between Saudi Arabia and Iran, has been underway for decades. Based at least as much on religious hatred as on national security, it reached intense levels with the Iran-Iraq War of the 80s which took hundreds of thousands of lives. Afterward, animosities lessened but Read More …

Jerusalem, Gaza, and stability in the anti-Iran Entente

Brian M Downing  This week the US opened its embassy in Jerusalem, moving it from Tel Aviv as President Trump promised. The relocation signaled the president’s disinterest in a two-state solution and support for the Israeli Right’s assimilation of the West Bank. Along the Gaza Strip in the west, Palestinian Read More …

Outcome scenarios in the sectarian wars: Saudi Arabia triumphant 

Brian M Downing  The US is walking away from the JCPOA and sectarian conflict is poised to spread, intensify, and probably go on for years. The US and Israel are foursquare on the Sunni side. Iran and Saudi Arabia have been at odds since Khomeini came to power in 1979 Read More …

Netanyahu drives a wedge between Moscow and Tehran

Brian M Downing  Critical events related to Middle Eastern conflicts took place last week. Iran apparently fired missiles into the Golan Heights and Israel struck back on numerous Iranian positions in Syria. The US announced it’s leaving the JCPOA and new sanctions on the Islamic Republic are pending. Iran responded Read More …

How we got into Syria (and where we’re going)

Brian M Downing  The Pentagon admits to about 2,000 troops in Syria, though it declines to give a precise number. The GIs range along the northern border with Turkey and extend down the eastern bank of the Euphrates. They serve as trainers, advisors, air support spotters, logistics personnel, artillery support, Read More …

The Entente sets its sights on Iran – democracy or disintegration?

Brian M Downing  Candidate Trump made it clear that he opposed the Iran nuclear treaty, or JCPOA, and would be much firmer with Iran than President Obama had been or a President Hillary Clinton would be. President Trump has solidified ties with the Israeli Right and Sunni princes, making tough Read More …

Will the young prince lead his troops into Syria?

Brian M Downing  The US and Britain, along with Kurdish-Arab SDF allies, have established themselves in eastern Syria. Washington and Riyadh are discussing a contingent from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. President Trump recently said the US would soon be out of Syria. The statement has been dialed back Read More …

Missile strikes and deterrence in the Levant

Brian M Downing  The US has twice fired missiles into Syria in retaliation for using chemical weapons. A year ago, a unilateral US barrage of 59 ship-launched cruise missiles struck a military airbase. Last Friday, the US, Britain, and France fired twice that number, from both ships and aircraft, into Read More …

A bigger war coming in the Levant (maybe negotiations too)

Brian M Downing  A year ago, after Syria used chemical weapons on its civilians, President Trump retaliated within 72 hours with a cruise missile strike on a Syrian airfield. Unfortunately, it had no deterrent effect on Assad. Attacks on civilians have continued, most recently in Douma, near Damascus. It’s been Read More …