The Gulf powers face a democratic Iraq

Brian M Downing  The US-led campaign in Iraq booted out Saddam Hussein, disbanded his army, and set up elections. A frail democracy has been in place for over a decade. The position here is that Iraq is not fertile soil for democratic government. Sectarianism, factionalism, tribalism, and corruption pose serious Read More …

Can Saudi Arabia still wield the oil weapon?

Brian M Downing  The apparent murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi at the direction of the crown prince has been disastrous for the kingdom. Western publics are horrified and voicing their concern to elected officials. Members of the US congress are calling for sanctions. Senator Lindsey Graham (SC) wants Mohammed Read More …

Murder and succession in the Middle East

Brian M Downing  Mohammed bin Salman, the 33-year-old heir apparent to the Saudi throne, has been aggressively consolidating his power. Though initiating welcome reforms, he has come down hard on dissent and continued wars in Syria and Yemen. Neither conflict is going well, but the prince has skillfully maneuvered other Read More …

Another Saudi dissident vanishes

Brian M Downing  Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist critical of his government, disappeared shortly after visiting a Saudi consulate in Istanbul. He is not the first Saudi to disappear after criticizing his government. Some have resurfaced, others haven’t.  Mohammed bin Salman, the young ruler of the Kingdom, is consolidating his Read More …

Outcomes of the Iran conflict, Part II

Brian M Downing  Regime strengthened The entente’s efforts to weaken the Iranian government may have the reverse effect, especially if more aggressive actions are taken. The importance attached to urban middle classes is overestimated owing to their parallels to westernized people and an attendant faith that they must represent Iran’s Read More …

Outcomes of the Iran conflict, Part I

Brian M Downing  The US, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are determined to bring change to Iran. They claim it’s violating the JCPOA, supporting  terrorism, and aggressively expanding its influence in the region. The US has reimposed sanctions. More will follow in the autumn. This three-power entente wants to soften demand Read More …