Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The US full-spectrum pressure on Iran has thus far not gotten Iran out of Syria, isolated Hisbollah, fomented an uprising, or brought down the regime of mullahs and generals. The policy seems counterproductive, solidifying the guardians in Tehran, weakening Washington’s respect in the world, and strengthening Beijing’s Read More …
Brian M Downing Tensions between the US and China are deepening as they vie for influence, markets, and military bases in many parts of the world. Iran, with its oil wealth, strategic position, and large population, is clearly leaning toward China. It has recently signed an agreement on trade that Read More …
Brian M Downing The elderly but tireless Vermont senator is in the lead for the Democratic nomination. A better picture will emerge next week after 15 more states will have voted. Foreign policy has barely crept into the campaign, even though it’s been underway for a year now. How would Read More …
Brian M Downing In recent years American policies in the Middle East have met with mixed success. Key allies are reasonably secure and arms sales are on the rise. However, intermittent efforts to liberalize the region have brought more chaos than democracy, in large part because most Arab rulers oppose Read More …
Brian M Downing The Yemen war has been stalemated for over a year. The southern Sunnis, despite strong foreign backing, have failed to take the Shia north. The Houthis have occasionally fired missiles into Saudi Arabia and skirmished along the northern frontier. Over the weekend, however, Houthi drones struck a Read More …
Brian M Downing War seemed imminent not long ago. Not between Saudi Arabia and Iran, of course, but between the US and Iran. Saudi Arabia and its allies have been hostile toward Iran for generations and their predecessors have despised Shiiism for almost fourteen centuries. They’ve prevailed upon an inexperienced, Read More …
Brian M Downing Kenneth M Pollack – Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab Military Effectiveness (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019) Shortly after ISIL routed the Iraqi army in 2014, I was told that Iraqi tanks had several reverse gears and one forward gear. The latter Read More …
Brian M Downing Candidate Trump sounded ominous warnings toward Iran which continued into his presidency. He withdrew the US from the JCPOA, reimposed sanctions, and is trying to bring Tehran’s oil exports down to a trickle. Only Saudi Arabia, the GCC states, and Israel support the US. Fighting seemed near Read More …
Brian M Downing Military thinkers have long stressed the importance of deception. Hiding troop movements, disguising weaknesses, and faking retreats have all been part of warfare since Sun Tzu wrote twenty-five centuries ago. Eisenhower pretended to have an entire army waiting to invade the Pas de Calais. He even placed George Read More …
Brian M Downing Strategic alignments are usually based on compelling economic and military interests. But as argued previously, the US and Saudi Arabia are moving in different directions economically and militarily. The US is no longer buying crude from the Gulf and may not be able to afford to keep Read More …