Toward a second front in Syria?

Brian M Downing The Obama administration is reluctantly upping its involvement in the Syrian civil war. Though the White House offers few details, reports indicate that American personnel will arm and train teams of rebel fighters on Jordanian territory, then send them across the border to fight the Assad government.  Read More …

The Battle of al Qusayr and Syria’s dim future

Brian M Downing The Assad government, having lost control of large swathes of the country and deemed near collapse only a few months ago, has put together a surprising counteroffensive. The operation seeks to reestablish the ground route between the capital Damascus and the Mediterranean coast, where the regime’s Alawi Read More …

Did counterinsurgency work in Iraq?

Brian M Downing Most accounts of the Second Iraq War (2003-11) attach great importance to counterinsurgency programs in ending the conflict there. The shift from using heavy firepower to winning hearts and minds is said to have created a “Sunni Awakening,” which changed the course of the war and brought Read More …

The Egyptian military and politics – and Saudi ambitions

Brian M Downing The Egyptian generals stand to come out of the present crisis more powerful than before, if they play it right. The old regime – Mubarak’s regime – comprised family cliques, business oligarchs, and the army elite. Two years ago, the army objected to Mubarak’s son as president-in-waiting Read More …

Saudi Arabia’s campaign against the Arab Spring

Brian M. Downing The uprisings of the Arab Spring have been supported in the West and many other countries as well.  The tide is seen as welcome, inevitable, and essential to placing the region on a proper political and economic track. That view, however, is not shared in Saudi Arabia. Read More …

The Syrian army nears the breaking point

Brian M Downing Recent fighting in Damascus and Aleppo has differed markedly from that of only a couple of months ago when the regular army swiftly defeated rebel enclaves in Homs, Idlib, and Deraa.  Fighting in Damascus has persisted for several weeks now and while it trails off at times, Read More …

The Saudi endgame for Iran 

Brian M Downing  Wars bring together states in common purpose and create myths of unity and friendship. Such myths are eagerly bought by the media and general publics alike. Meanwhile, behind the scenes, there is considerable squabbling that only becomes apparent when the war is over and long-standing differences arise, Read More …

Syria begins to break down

Brian M Downing  The violence in Syria has gone up markedly in the past two weeks, with massacres in at least two Sunni villages and sharp skirmishes between government forces and the rebel opposition in several cities. The United Nations has had to suspend its monitoring inside the country.  The Read More …