Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Concerns of Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites are on the rise once again. They come after the US, at Israel’s behest, broke with the JCPOA and imposed sanctions on Iran. In response, Iran has cranked up its centrifuges and enriched its uranium stores, though not yet Read More …
Brian M Downing Saudi Arabia and Iran have compelling domestic incentives to pursue negotiations and ease tensions. Dialog is almost certainly being encouraged by China. It may even have helped initiate it. It has considerable influence on both sides of the Gulf and ambition to replace the United States as Read More …
Brian M Downing Iran and Saudi Arabia have been at daggers drawn for decades. The conflict is based partly on the 1400-year-old schism within Islam but more on the instability from the 1979 Khomeini Revolution.That led to fears of expansionary Shiism and then to a Sunni invasion of Iran. More Read More …
Policy and failure twenty years on – part three, Iran Brian M Downing The aftermath of the 9/11 attacks opened a path to better US-Iran relations. Washington could have restored comity with a powerful regional actor and renewed trade with its 75 million people, many with rising incomes and Read More …
Brian M Downing There’s no evidence Iran has a nuclear weapons program. The US intelligence community hasn’t budged from its assessment of 2007, though politicians and media outlets cling to what they want to believe. However, today Iran is avoiding JCPOA talks, increasing enrichment levels, closing off snap inspections and Read More …
Brian M Downing The IRGC has several ways to increase its power at the expense of the mullahs. Again, the scenario suggested here isn’t a coup. The mullahs have far too much popular and institutional power for that. But the generals can establish a formidable power bloc comprising military, economic, Read More …
Brian M Downing Last week Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, leader of his country’s nuclear program, was shot to death near Tehran. It’s the most recent attack going back to the Islamic Republic’s early years. The Sunni powers waged a long war that killed several hundred thousand Iranians. Since its inconclusive end, Iran Read More …