Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing States rise to global power in partnership with other countries. Britain, for example, rose to preeminence with allies that weakened enemies on the continent, and with local notables on the subcontinent. American preeminence came after the Second World War with a slew of alliances stretching from Western Read More …
Brian M Downing China’s economic growth and increasing global reach have reaped geopolitical advantages. The same of course was true when Britain, France, and the United States planted their flags and built commerce across the globe in previous centuries. In the case of China the process has come from careful Read More …
Brian M Downing In all recorded history, China has had the strongest economy in the world, with the exception of the previous two centuries. The West’s preeminence seems timeless and preordained in much of the world, but in China it’s an historical fluke, one that will be made plain to Read More …
Brian M Downing America assumed the role of world leader after 1945, when European countries were in ruins and no longer able to maintain their empires. The US has held onto that position despite failed wars in Asia and the 2008 economic collapse. American elites, think tanks, and much of Read More …
Brian M Downing Diplomacy has known the Message to Garcia, the Willy-Nicky correspondence, the Zimmerman telegram, and the Zinoviev letter. Now we have President Trump’s tweet claiming Pakistan has been duplicitous in the Afghan war: “The United States has foolishly given Pakistan more than 33 billion dollars in aid over Read More …
Brian M Downing (Part I) Common ground Political and economic forces will push the Gulf states closer to Russia and China. The Gulf states and Russia want to keep oil prices as high as possible, and indeed they have already collaborated on production limits that have helped raise world prices Read More …
Brian M Downing Protests in Iran are in their fifth day and so far 14 people have been killed. The demonstrations changed from bread and butter issues to calls for an end to theocracy. The lifting of sanctions, partial though it was, brought expectations of more jobs, higher incomes, and Read More …
Brian M Downing The United States has naval and air force bases across the Gulf – in Kuwait, the Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Oman, and to an uncertain extent, Saudi Arabia. Iran was once a staunch US ally but after the Shah’s downfall and failure at rapprochement, it’s now firmly aligned Read More …
Brian M Downing Great powers have come and gone from Afghanistan. None have gotten what they expected. In the 19th century, Anglo-Russian rivalry centered in the Balkans and the Crimea, but Moscow’s expansion into Central Asia threatened British India, or at least seemed to. Officers from both empires parleyed with Read More …
The new game China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan are gaining from American powerlessness in the Middle East, East Asia, and Afghanistan. The superpower’s limitations and the entente’s influence are being made clear around the world. The entente is positioned to gain even more as the Afghan quagmire drags on. The Read More …