The Entente sets its sights on Iran – democracy or disintegration?

Brian M Downing  Candidate Trump made it clear that he opposed the Iran nuclear treaty, or JCPOA, and would be much firmer with Iran than President Obama had been or a President Hillary Clinton would be. President Trump has solidified ties with the Israeli Right and Sunni princes, making tough Read More …

Another fighting season arrives in Afghanistan

Brian M Downing  The war in Afghanistan goes on and warmer weather brings a new Taliban campaign. The Islamist group was driven from most of the country in 2001-02 but found safe haven in Pakistan and reconstituted itself as an insurgency. Irremediable corruption in Afghan government and society has helped Read More …

Will the young prince lead his troops into Syria?

Brian M Downing  The US and Britain, along with Kurdish-Arab SDF allies, have established themselves in eastern Syria. Washington and Riyadh are discussing a contingent from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. President Trump recently said the US would soon be out of Syria. The statement has been dialed back Read More …

Missile strikes and deterrence in the Levant

Brian M Downing  The US has twice fired missiles into Syria in retaliation for using chemical weapons. A year ago, a unilateral US barrage of 59 ship-launched cruise missiles struck a military airbase. Last Friday, the US, Britain, and France fired twice that number, from both ships and aircraft, into Read More …

A bigger war coming in the Levant (maybe negotiations too)

Brian M Downing  A year ago, after Syria used chemical weapons on its civilians, President Trump retaliated within 72 hours with a cruise missile strike on a Syrian airfield. Unfortunately, it had no deterrent effect on Assad. Attacks on civilians have continued, most recently in Douma, near Damascus. It’s been Read More …

Notes on the Israeli strike on Syria – and Iran

Brian M Downing  The position here is that Israeli PM Netanyahu should retaliate against Syria for its use of chemical weapons. (“Why is Netanyahu looking on?” March 14 2018.) In addition to upholding norms, it would weaken an enemy that’s reconstituting itself, at least partially, from the fragmentation brought on by Read More …

Mohammad bin Salman and the future of Saudi Arabia

Brian M Downing  Warrior-king Abdul Aziz ibn Saud gathered tribal forces on the Arabian Peninsula after World War One and established a personal Kingdom in 1932. Since his death in 1953, Saudi Arabia has been ruled by his sons – actually by a clique within his numerous offspring. In recent Read More …

Cohesion and disintegration in Putin’s Russia: Part one – sources of legitimacy 

Brian M Downing To most people in the West, Vladimir Putin is a brutal dictator. He’s concentrated power in his person and amassed a huge fortune from expropriated national wealth. He’s invaded and annexed the Crimea and is attempting the same in the eastern Ukraine. He’s systematically bombed civilian targets Read More …

The Don’s new consigliere and Iran

Brian M Downing Last spring, as the Trump administration took its first steps on the world stage, many were relieved to see relatively cautious figures in top foreign policy slots. This was especially so after Sec of State Rex Tillerson offered cautious words regarding North Korea, Qatar, and Iran that Read More …

The prince and president talk arms – and Sunnistan

Brian M Downing  Mohammed bin Salman, heir apparent and de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, is in Washington this week. Discussions will bear on the geopolitics of the Middle East and the political economy of the United States. The prince brought his checkbook. High on the agenda is dealing with Read More …