Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Russia invaded Ukraine with expectations of taking Kyiv and many other cities in a matter of days. It was overly-ambitious and showed little understanding of military realities. It was also a deviation from the Russian way of war: protracted intense artillery bombardments devastate everything ahead and open Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s Donbas offensive failed in a major encirclement operation from Izyum in the north and Donetsk in the south. Moscow fell back on a less ambitious campaign of slowly moving west from the center of the Donbas. This, it is hoped, will solidify control of the Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s war hasn’t gone well. Attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv have been driven back, and pincer movements from north and south in the Donbas pocket haven’t achieved much. More recently, however, Russia can rightly lay claim to two successes – Mariupol and the central Donbas pocket. What’s Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s effort to vanquish Ukraine has failed. The drive on Kyiv was driven back to Belarus and the one in the Donbas has stalled. Ukrainian forces are attritting invading forces with artillery, drones, antitank weapons, and MANPADs. Ukrainians wore down the Nazis in the 1940s and their Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia is headed for defeat in Ukraine. Sanctions are weakening the economy and even choking off arms production. The army is being attritted by a more disciplined and better equipped adversary. Money’s drying up and default looms. By year’s end Russia may be struggling to hold on Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s would-be blitzkrieg in Ukraine is now a stalemate. The war will continue as long as his troops are across the border. Russia’s economy and state will weaken and the army will become increasingly ineffectual. Defeat is at hand, though official admission isn’t. How much domestic opposition Read More …
Brian M Downing With the failure of the Kyiv and Donbas offensives, Putin is thought to be shifting to a long-term strategy. This could mean a nonstop military campaign or continuous fighting with intermittent formal or informal truces, though Ukraine is unlikely to grant any respite. What will the impact be Read More …
Brian M Downing In 1943, two years after invading the Soviet Union, the Third Reich lost the initiative after a defeat at Kursk. Today, Russia’s lost the initiative, paradoxically not far south of Kursk. The effort to take Kyiv ended in hasty retreat and the Donbas campaign has failed too. Read More …
Brian M Downing Every year Moscow commemorates May 9th. That’s the day in 1945 that Germany surrendered after what Russians call the Great Patriotic War. The West calls the surrender VE Day and it was once stamped on every calendar along with VJ Day and December 7th. The war’s memory Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia failed to reach Kyiv in its opening offensive in late February. It shifted to the Donbas two weeks ago, seeking to trap or grind down Ukrainian forces there. That isn’t faring any better. In fact, it’s gained less ground. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kharkiv is Read More …