Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing It’s thought that Prigozhin’s rebellion damaged Putin and change may be coming in Moscow. Prigozhin certainly made Putin look foolhardy for supporting him so long, despite his sharp criticisms of the war and its generals. But Putin will only face serious trouble if one or more pillars Read More …
Brian M Downing Unsuccessful military revolts in Russia usually bring fierce retribution. Peter the Great tortured and killed hundreds of Streltsy after their 1698 uprising. Nicholas I did the same to the Decembrists after the Napoleonic wars. Stalin insisted Russian turncoats be repatriated and they were executed upon disembarkation from Read More …
Brian M Downing The view here has long been that the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private mercenary army, would cause trouble for Russia. The mercenary leader has been vocal in criticizing the regular army for its lack of aggressiveness and inadequate logistical support to his troops. After Russian strikes came Read More …
Brian M Downing The view here has long been that the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private mercenary army, would cause trouble for Russia. Private armies and elite forces create tensions with the regular army, as with the Waffen SS and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. They may become too independent of the Read More …
Brian M Downing Speculation about Russia resorting to nuclear weapons has gone on since the invasion stalled and embarrassing setbacks followed. No definite answer can be given. Putin himself might not know for sure yet. It doesn’t seem implausible. Mutually assured destruction kept nuclear weapons in the silos during the Read More …
Brian M Downing Kyiv confirms that its long-awaited offensive has begun. The main attack is in Zaporizhzhia, as predicted here last year (http://www.downingreports.com/feint-and-opportunity-on-the-southern-front/). Units are moving south into the Russian-occupied land bridge along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov. The offensive probably has three phases: driving a wedge between Read More …
Brian M Downing Flooding has been used in war for centuries. The Dutch broke dikes to hold back Louis XIV’s invasions. The Germans flooded the same region to slow the Allies late in World War Two. The latter was a war crime. So is Russia’s destruction of the Kakhovka dam Read More …
Brian M Downing This morning ethnic Russian soldiers of the Freedom of Russia Legion (FRL), backed by Kyiv, crossed into Russia’s Belgorod region, north of central Ukraine. The force, perhaps two battalions of ethnic Russians, claim to be establishing a buffer area just south of Belgorod to push Russian artillery Read More …
Brian M Downing The long-awaited Ukrainian offensive may have begun near Bakhmut. It comes after weeks of attacks on Russian depots in the east and inside Russia itself. Expectations vary. Kyiv cautions that the offensive might not be as formidable as thought. Many outside analysts think it will be highly Read More …
Brian M Downing A Ukrainian offensive is coming. When and where aren’t known. The view here has been that, after probes and feints, a drive into the land bridge will come. This could split Russian forces in the south in two, force a major battle, and endanger the Crimean peninsula. Read More …