Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Two decades have passed since the 9/11 attacks. Two decades of wars, expenditures, casualties, and failures. As US troops left Afghanistan last month President Biden pointed out that we’d killed Osama bin Laden but that hardly addressed the entirety of the operations. In another twenty years assessments Read More …
Brian M Downing Early concerns and defections Shortly after the Vietnam buildup in 1965, Sen William Fulbright (D-Arkansas) chaired hearings. Foreign policy and military experts, including George F Kennan questioned the strategic justifications for the war and the way it was being fought. Fulbright’s investigations were on television. Public support for the Read More …
Brian M Downing In 1965 the US took on the main combat load in Vietnam. Each year saw more US troops, more fighting and casualties, and few if any signs of progress. Two years in, popular and elite opposition was rising. The following year public opposition was all the higher Read More …
Brian M Downing Following successes in Syria and Iraq in 2014, ISIL set up cells in Afghanistan comprising mostly Pakistani Taliban. They called themselves the “Islamist State-Khorasan” (IS-K), using an ancient name for the Central Asian expanse with mythic meaning in apocalyptic writings. It’s in Khorasan that jihadis will gather, Read More …
Brian M Downing An effort to transform a traditional, Islamist country into a modern one, in only a decade or so, using a large number of foreign troops and civilians, was bound to fail. Add in that the country was landlocked and surrounded by untrustworthy or hostile countries and the Read More …
Brian M Downing The 2001 al Qaeda attacks called for a forceful response. The US response was forceful but poorly thought out and unsuccessful. Trying to occupy and modernize a landlocked, traditional country comprising scores of mutually antagonistic groups and surrounded by unreliable countries, was an appalling, foreseeable blunder. My Read More …
Brian M Downing The sudden, complete disintegration of the Afghan army and state has led to dismal scenes at the Kabul airport and around the country. A debate is beginning here. It will be partisan, uninformed, boorish, and unlikely to offer insight for future conflicts. One argument heard Read More …
Brian M Downing Maps of Taliban control showed dramatic gains over all Afghanistan but they may be misleading. The absence of government troops and control does not mean Taliban control. The Taliban may see their military forces weaken markedly in coming months and face warlord reisistance in the north. Taliban Read More …
Brian M Downing The Taliban are in power. Their opponents have fled, their soldiers patrol the capital, Western countries are scurrying to get personnel out. Taliban control was never complete in their first emirate. There were redoubts in the north and insurgencies elsewhere. The second emirate will face instabilities as Read More …
Cohesion and disintegration in the Afghan National Army Brian M Downing Afghanistan’s army has excellent equipment, including night-fighting equipment, has been well trained, and has a great deal of combat experience. Nonetheless, it has serious problems most of which predate the Taliban’s ongoing offensive. It’s unlikely to hold the west and it Read More …