Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing IS-K was lying low for the last few years. It set up cells in Afghanistan in 2015, comprising mostly Pakistani militants, hoping the success of ISIL, its parent unit in the Levant, would attract jihadis from throughout Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia. The new franchise would conquer Read More …
Brian M Downing Iran and Saudi Arabia have been at daggers drawn for decades. The conflict is based partly on the 1400-year-old schism within Islam but more on the instability from the 1979 Khomeini Revolution.That led to fears of expansionary Shiism and then to a Sunni invasion of Iran. More Read More …
Brian M Downing The Afghan opposition may find that a promising path to bettering their country runs through Beijing. Former Afghan officials in exile will argue that China will benefit from leaning on the Taliban. The situation on the ground will make a stronger case. Beijing already sees the Taliban Read More …
Brian M Downing The Taliban, al Qaeda, and the rest The Taliban government’s ties to al Qaeda and a slew of related jihadi groups in eastern areas are an embarrassment that threaten relations with the outside world, even China. A look into the ties will not be welcome in Pakistan Read More …
Brian M Downing In previous essays, warlords, women, humiliated former soldiers, and anti-Pashtun peoples have been identified as bases of opposition to the Taliban. At present, women seem to be the most insistent and they will become an international cause that will burden the Islamist militants. Other groups will announce Read More …
Brian M Downing Shortly after the Taliban regained power last month, opponents rallied in Kabul and other cities. Afghan flags were waved to show rejection of the Taliban’s white banners. Most demonstrations have ebbed. Those by women remain though, as do their videos and blogs and day-to-day resistance. Women have Read More …
Brian M Downing The Taliban, against even its own expectations, has overwhelmed the Kabul government and apparently the organized Tajik resistance too. They do not yet control the country and their ability to ever do so is doubtful. The Taliban’s success hinged not on popularity or military mastery but on Read More …
Brian M Downing Not long ago it was thought that in the event of a Taliban victory, Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazara would put up spirited resistance in northern and central redoubts. American generals warned the conflict might shift from the ANA against the Taliban to northern warlords against the Read More …
Policy and failure twenty years on – part three, Iran Brian M Downing The aftermath of the 9/11 attacks opened a path to better US-Iran relations. Washington could have restored comity with a powerful regional actor and renewed trade with its 75 million people, many with rising incomes and Read More …
Brian M Downing Justifications The second response to the 9/11 attacks was the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Several justifications were advanced. First, Saddam Hussein was said to be developing WMDs which could be used against American cities. However, the intelligence assessment did not claim high certainty and doubts abounded. Read More …