Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Russia’s Ukraine war will end in humiliating defeat. The severity and day are uncertain but the cause isn’t. Putin’s army, from top to bottom, has performed abysmally – worse than imaginable for a country claiming major power status. The Russian leadership, or key parts of it, will Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s Donbas offensive is in its tenth day. It’s neither taken significant land nor worn down Ukrainian resolve. Russia has lost the initiative, and maybe more. Severe casualties aside, Putin’s military won’t be the same. The army is the strongest pillar of any autocracy and the one Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s much anticipated Donbas offensive is in its second week. Despite reinforcements from the north, furious artillery attacks all along the salient, and confident declarations in Moscow, success is hard to find. Attacks have gained little ground anywhere along the large salient. Most have been beaten back Read More …
Brian M Downing The Russian offensive in the east seeks to expel Ukrainian forces from the entire Donbas area, consolidate positions on the land bridge to Crimea, and position forces for future drives on Odessa and Kyiv. Defeating the offensive will greatly strengthen Ukraine’s position in the Donbas. It will Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia was driven out of the north and needs success in the Donbas to turn the tide. Failure would bring egregious military and political problems from frontline BTGs to the Kremlin inner sanctum. The need for victory can lead to incautious, even desperate moves and self-deception throughout Read More …
Brian M Downing This week, Russia launched an offensive in the Donbas. It surprised no one. The Kremlin announced that it was shifting to the east and even claimed, if unconvincingly, that control of the region was the principal war aim. Why has the drive come so shortly after the Read More …
Brian M Downing The Russian army is preparing an offensive in the east, perhaps along the Black Sea coast as well. It comes on the heels of disastrous, costly failures to take Kiev and Kharkiv. The battered troops withdrew unceremoniously and are heading to the east. The view here is Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s war, now in its eighth week, continues to go badly for him. The army is suffering heavy casualties and confusion plagues the chain of command. Sanctions will bring depression by fall and the army may be paralyzed by morale, discipline, and supply problems before that. Many Read More …
Brian M Downing Since the outset, Russia’s war has shown no regard for civilian lives. This isn’t simply Ukrainian propaganda. Russian artillery, airstrikes, and missiles target apartment complexes, theaters, and hospitals, as they did in Chechnya and Syria. Ukrainian troops are finding scenes of grisly executions and massacres as they Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia opened three fronts in Ukraine. Drives on Kyiv and Kharkiv have failed and the troops are retreating and will soon redeploy to the remaining front in the east. The Russians been hit hard and need a few weeks to work in replacements and recover. Putin may Read More …