Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Russia and China now see the war isn’t ending soon but feel time is on their side. They believe democracies are deeply flawed and no longer have the will and martial spirit of modern authoritarian governments, especially those in Moscow and Beijing where dissent and diversity aren’t Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin is facing defeat in Ukraine and that will bring deep turmoil to Russia. He will confront opposition from elites and the public. He may be ousted or he may use his considerable wiles to stay in power. Four scenarios will be looked at in this series: Read More …
Brian M Downing Thus far the Iranian uprising has apparently not led to weakened repressive capacity, divisions in the elite, or opposition in parliament (Majles). This doesn’t bode well. However, separatist movements, terrorism, and foreign pressures may cause deeper problems for the mullahs and generals. Intensified separatism Iran is ruled Read More …
Brian M Downing Over the years since the 1979 revolution, Iran has seen several uprisings against the mullahs and generals. They are part of a long history of protests and democratic aspirations led by young urban dwellers that go back over a century. Previous triggers have been electoral fraud, shortages, Read More …
Brian M Downing Anti-democratic sentiment is on the rise, though adherents see themselves as defenders of the nation. There’s a gap between this sentiment in the country and political power in Washington – between blood and soil and principles and processes. The gap may be closing with the aid of Read More …
Brian M Downing In the absence of common values, in a period when national institutions have lost their prestige, romance, and unifying force, when so much of life is increasingly antagonistic and violent, geographic and racial fissures do not augur well for the country. Without the reemergence of unifying forces, Read More …