Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Saudi Arabia and Iran have compelling domestic incentives to pursue negotiations and ease tensions. Dialog is almost certainly being encouraged by China. It may even have helped initiate it. It has considerable influence on both sides of the Gulf and ambition to replace the United States as Read More …
Brian M Downing The Afghan opposition may find that a promising path to bettering their country runs through Beijing. Former Afghan officials in exile will argue that China will benefit from leaning on the Taliban. The situation on the ground will make a stronger case. Beijing already sees the Taliban Read More …
Brian M Downing The Taliban, al Qaeda, and the rest The Taliban government’s ties to al Qaeda and a slew of related jihadi groups in eastern areas are an embarrassment that threaten relations with the outside world, even China. A look into the ties will not be welcome in Pakistan Read More …
Brian M Downing In previous essays, warlords, women, humiliated former soldiers, and anti-Pashtun peoples have been identified as bases of opposition to the Taliban. At present, women seem to be the most insistent and they will become an international cause that will burden the Islamist militants. Other groups will announce Read More …
Brian M Downing Iran shows no urgency in returning to the JCPOA and getting sanctions lifted. Since the Biden administration came into office in January, Iranian militias in Iraq have stepped up attacks on US positions. The Houthis have gone on the offensive in Yemen. And most recently a drone, Read More …
Brian M Downing Political equilibrium Afghanistan has never been a unified country with common beliefs, identity, and trust in national institutions – and it never will be. The country comprises a handful of sizable tribal confederations and ethnic groups and a slew of smaller ones who mistrust and often loathe Read More …
Brian M Downing The Taliban are seizing district after district, border crossing after border crossing. Major cities are increasingly cut off from one another and sieges loom. Government forces are holding up only because of Afghan special forces and American airpower. The former are stretched thin and the latter are Read More …
Brian M Downing The Taliban appear unstoppable and Kabul is in trouble. Districts are falling one after the other and the army may disintegrate into ethnic militias, warlord bands, and roving bands. Kabul will face siege in a few months. That raises worries about the US embassy. It became immense Read More …
Brian M Downing Iraq gravely worsened Sunni-Shia animosities by invading Iran in 1980. Though unsupportive at first, the Sunni states funneled support to Saddam Hussein to stave off defeat and a triumphant Shia republic. The war lasted eight years and killed hundreds of thousands. Today, Iraq is trying to use Read More …
Brian M Downing In coming years the US and China will be vying for power throughout the world. This will be especially so in the Persian Gulf owing to its strategic and symbolic importance. Diplomacy in Yemen may lead the way to bolder efforts. China cannot allow the US to Read More …