Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing The Taliban, against even its own expectations, has overwhelmed the Kabul government and apparently the organized Tajik resistance too. They do not yet control the country and their ability to ever do so is doubtful. The Taliban’s success hinged not on popularity or military mastery but on Read More …
Brian M Downing Not long ago it was thought that in the event of a Taliban victory, Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazara would put up spirited resistance in northern and central redoubts. American generals warned the conflict might shift from the ANA against the Taliban to northern warlords against the Read More …
Policy and failure twenty years on – part three, Iran Brian M Downing The aftermath of the 9/11 attacks opened a path to better US-Iran relations. Washington could have restored comity with a powerful regional actor and renewed trade with its 75 million people, many with rising incomes and Read More …
Brian M Downing Justifications The second response to the 9/11 attacks was the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Several justifications were advanced. First, Saddam Hussein was said to be developing WMDs which could be used against American cities. However, the intelligence assessment did not claim high certainty and doubts abounded. Read More …
Brian M Downing Two decades have passed since the 9/11 attacks. Two decades of wars, expenditures, casualties, and failures. As US troops left Afghanistan last month President Biden pointed out that we’d killed Osama bin Laden but that hardly addressed the entirety of the operations. In another twenty years assessments Read More …
Brian M Downing Early concerns and defections Shortly after the Vietnam buildup in 1965, Sen William Fulbright (D-Arkansas) chaired hearings. Foreign policy and military experts, including George F Kennan questioned the strategic justifications for the war and the way it was being fought. Fulbright’s investigations were on television. Public support for the Read More …
Brian M Downing In 1965 the US took on the main combat load in Vietnam. Each year saw more US troops, more fighting and casualties, and few if any signs of progress. Two years in, popular and elite opposition was rising. The following year public opposition was all the higher Read More …
Brian M Downing Following successes in Syria and Iraq in 2014, ISIL set up cells in Afghanistan comprising mostly Pakistani Taliban. They called themselves the “Islamist State-Khorasan” (IS-K), using an ancient name for the Central Asian expanse with mythic meaning in apocalyptic writings. It’s in Khorasan that jihadis will gather, Read More …
Brian M Downing An effort to transform a traditional, Islamist country into a modern one, in only a decade or so, using a large number of foreign troops and civilians, was bound to fail. Add in that the country was landlocked and surrounded by untrustworthy or hostile countries and the Read More …
Brian M Downing The 2001 al Qaeda attacks called for a forceful response. The US response was forceful but poorly thought out and unsuccessful. Trying to occupy and modernize a landlocked, traditional country comprising scores of mutually antagonistic groups and surrounded by unreliable countries, was an appalling, foreseeable blunder. My Read More …