Is the United States breaking apart?

Is the United States breaking apart?

Brian M Downing

Previous centuries saw political consolidation into nation-states and empires, which dominated world affairs and became, apparently, an end point in regional histories. Many have fallen apart in the last quarter century. The Soviet Union and Yugoslavia are gone. The Islamic world is disintegrating. The effort to unite Europe is faltering and constituent states such as Britain, Spain, and Belgium may break apart. Political disintegration is perhaps the defining characteristic of our day.

The United States is beset by serious, protracted divisions that coincide with geographical regions. Basic points of history are contested. Public dialog is increasingly abrasive. The presence of irreconcilable hostilities, and the absence of unifying beliefs and repressive power, suggest the United States may too break apart. Unthinkable events are happening often these days.

Myths and force in national disintegration 

The Soviet Union based itself on Marxist-Leninist principles, of course, but more importantly on the Great Patriotic War. The immense sacrifice during the war and the crushing defeat of the Third Reich bestowed more prestige on the Soviet state than the fondest dreams of Marx and Lenin ever could have.

Its repressive capacity was formidable with the creation of the Cheka shortly after the seizure of power in 1917. Repressive capacity remained high for decades with various successors to the Cheka, but the botched coup against Gorbachev and his reforms led to paralysis and disintegration. The Soviet Union broke into over a dozen states.

Middle Eastern states were never able to unify the country with myths of military greatness. They relied instead on the personal charisma of leaders, most of which was artificial and of little enduring significance, and on generous disbursements of state revenue, which is in serious decline along with commodity prices.

Repressive capacity in the Middle East was effective for decades. In Iraq and Libya it was destroyed by foreign interventions, while in Syria it could not stand up to mass uprising, especially once foreign support for rebel troops arrived. Sectarian and tribal hostilities question the viability of many other Middle Eastern states.

The US

America was once replete with unifying myths – equality, opportunity, justice, almost unlimited resources, and national might. Unity reached its greatest moment with World War Two. Americans worked together in the effort, shared sacrifices, and exulted in the victory. The celebration lasted for twenty years until the weight modernization and the turmoil of Vietnam broke down unifying myths and opened the way for the highly individualistic and divisive country we now live in.

The 9/11 attacks unified the country, for a while, but unity swiftly gave way to the status quo ante bellum. The wars in response to the attacks were ill-advised and poorly conducted. Most Americans were unaffected by the wars as military service is performed by a small segment that most Americans have no contact with.

America is riven over several issues, forming the great divide known as Red and Blue America. Each side holds fast to its position and views compromise as betrayal. The other side’s views are incomprehensible, signs of “phobias”, moronic, or evil.

Nationalism – Reds hold fast to traditional patriotism. They serve in the military and predominate in both the officer corps and rank and file. Blues are more sympathetic to international organizations and prefer diplomacy to military action.

Gun control – Reds favor few restrictions on gun ownership. Blues favor stronger measures including outright ban on some weapons such as assault-style rifles.

Immigration – Blues support immigration for humanitarian reasons but likely also as way to make the US all the Bluer. Red opposition is relatively recent. For decades they supported immigration as a way to lower wages. They also believed they could recruit socially conservative immigrants into their fold. That has proved to be a false hope.

Abortion – Blues support the Court decision recognizing a right to abortion. Reds see it as a poor decision that legitimizes murder, and seek to limit abortion and one day reverse the Court’s decision.

Multiculturalism – Blues see longstanding beliefs, including traditional religions, as provincial, archaic, and part of an oppressive power structure. They seek a more flexible culture. Reds hold fast to a basic American identity and see multiculturalism as national suicide.

Political divisions coincide fairly closely with geographic regions. The Northeast and West Coast are Blue, the South, Southwest, and Plains are Red. This makes ideological divisions much more ominous than if they were spread out evenly in most states. Geographic divisions are made plain in presidential elections. The occasional landslide notwithstanding, electoral outcomes in most states are well known before the first vote is cast. Elections hinge on a dozen states.

 

Triggers

What could cause these tensions to become reason to break apart a country with over two centuries of history? More years of gridlock and media ranting might suffice, but certain events could cause a political crisis akin to the election of an Illinois senator to the White House.

The Supreme Court could overturn the 2008 Heller decision which recognized gun ownership as a constitutional right and which negated many state and local gun restrictions. Red states might feel pressed to secede or at least assert the right of state legislatures to negate laws and decisions from Washington.

Immigration could swing a handful of states into the Blue camp. This would make the Reds a regional grouping with little prospect of winning the presidency or majorities in congress or on the Supreme Court.

Another contested election in which key electoral votes are handed to one side after protracted and perhaps murky legal proceedings.

Repressive capacity

If the United States cannot hold together through shared beliefs, could armed force be used to do the job? It scarcely needs noting that armed force held the country together in the 1860s, though much has changed since Lee handed his sword to Grant. There is little likelihood of another Ft Sumter, Gettysburg, or Appomattox. The breakup is more likely to come with a whimper.

The United States was once seen as formed by a God-given covenant, like that between Yahweh and the Israelites. Once entered into the sacred covenant, one could not leave without blaspheming and inviting fearful, providentially-ordained retribution. What followed was the bloodiest war in American history. The idea of sacredness in the Union still resides in parts of America, though hardly with the intensity it once had.

The armed forces are largely if not overwhelmingly in the Red camp. Polls show that officers, NCOs, and the rank and file support conservative candidates and ideas by a wide and troubling margin. They see themselves as guardians of the nation and resent many of Washington’s and the Court’s impositions, especially on LGBT matters which they see as weakening combat effectiveness.

Support for the Red side might be overwhelming, but not unhesitating. The military still attaches sacredness to national unity and would see a breakup as weakening America’s mission in the world. It may, despite its political orientations, be the strongest institution in favor of unity.

Copyright 2016 Brian M Downing

Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who has written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.