Brian M Downing
Warping our foreign policy
States have to make policies with allies in mind. That’s a regrettable part of acting in the world. Ties with Saudi Arabia make this all the more vexing, embarrassing, and complicating – especially with Mohammed bin Salman calling the shots from the throne.
The kingdom’s human rights record is poor. Though MBS has magnanimously allowed women to drive automobiles, their station remains low, at least by 18th-century standards. He’s concentrating power in his hands at the expense of others in the Saud family. Several kinsmen have been imprisoned, others look over their shoulders at all times. His subjects are surveilled with the latest electronic gear that petrodollars can buy. Key enemies are singled out for imprisonment, torture, and termination.
The US occasionally makes comment but usually in a low tone before again deferring to a major arms purchaser. MBS has once again showed his magnanimity by scaling back executions just before Biden’s inauguration.
The Saudis use their clout on K Street and Capitol hill to press the US into conflicts that serve their interests more than ours. The war on ISIL raged just to the kingdom’s north in Syria and Iraq. The US assumed a large portion of the burden, the Saudis looked on from behind strengthened border walls. The kingdom has waged war in Yemen that’s become a humanitarian and military disaster. Its troops are hors de combat. The US provides with and intelligence. Riyadh has pressed the US to bring down the government in Iran and will continue the effort with the new administration.
Saudi diplomatic pressures and military inadequacies have worn on our armed forces, especially among pilots and special forces. Presidents have sent American troops to do a job that Saudi boys should be doing. How great can America be if its army is becoming latter-day Hessians in service to a foreign king?
A neo-empire
Siding with Saudi Arabia is consolidating its dominance in the Middle East. That has been a dream of regional potentates for generations. Riyadh’s power will be all the greater if Iran is further weakened and if the crown prince’s ambitious modernization program pans out, transforming the kingdom into an industrial power, especially in light armaments.
Saudi Arabia has already used its petrodollars to win a great deal of influence in Egypt, Pakistan, and most of the Sunni Gulf states. Sudan is moving toward Riyadh, Libya may follow, Yemen is being fought over. Saudi diplomacy is seeking to get Syria and Iraq to move into its sphere. It’s noteworthy that Egypt and Pakistan have large, competent armies. They might one day be more beholden to the Saudi monarchy. Over the last few years, however, those two countries have rebuffed Saudi pressure to send troops to Yemen.
The prospect of a Saudi axis stretching from the Maghreb to Pakistan should cause concern in Washington – and Jerusalem too. Yet their policies are helping to bring it about.
A house of cards?
However successful the House of Saud may be in building its neo-empire and industrial power, it’s longer-term viability isn’t assured. The kingdom comprises a slew of tribes with varying dispositions toward the ruling clique.
Many Saudis support the government’s official Wahhabi creed and see the royal family as decadent hypocrites. Younger subjects find the rule of sybaritic dilettantes to be embarrassing. Riyadh’s complicity in crushing the Arab Spring in Egypt and Bahrain is clear. Some in the large youth cohort look to liberal reforms, others to Islamist militancy. Within the royal family are hundreds or thousands of men and women who resent the monopoly of power that the crown prince has arrogated to himself.
No one saw the Arab Spring coming. Everyone saw it ruthlessly crushed in many countries. It’s only a matter of time until another such upheaval hits the region – and the kingdom. The Saudis will then of course expect American troops to help repress it.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.