Brian M Downing
All presidents are tested early on. Problems sometimes emerge on their own, sometimes they’re contrived. China tested Bush the Younger early on by knocking down a US surveillance plane. North Korea did the same with Trump four years ago.
China, Russia, and Iran form a powerful three-power axis. It will cause difficulties for the US along the immense periphery running from the Baltic to the Levant, from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of Japan. Joint maneuvers have taken place. More decisive actions are coming.
The setting
China will soon have the world’s strongest economy and it wants to be the most powerful state in the world too. Russia, closely aligned with China, wants to regain power in the world and exact revenge on the US for moving NATO east. Iran is seething over the US exit from the JCPOA, imposition of harsh sanctions, and assassination of a revered general.
Coordinated action by China, Russia, and Iran (and allies as well) is coming. It’s probably underway. They want to greatly reduce the prestige and power of the United States. They see a declining power deeply divided along political and racial lines, and entering a period of jarring internal violence. The three powers will take bold steps toward making China the world’s most powerful nation.
Biden is deemed saddled by domestic difficulties – the pandemic, immigration, racial violence, and an uncooperative opposition in Congress. Further, he’s judged an aging politician of no great resolve or vision, limited by a slim majority and a sizable opposition. For the axis, the opportunities are abundant and the hour is at hand.
North Korea
The view here was that Trump’s diplomacy with Kim Jong On was never going anywhere. It was naive to think N Korea would relinquish its nuclear weapons. Sec of State Pompeo seems to have though this when he closed off the dialog. China and Russia were supporting the North with oil and other materiel, despite their claims of abiding by sanctions.
The North is again testing missiles in a manner to show its resolve and test the US. It may further raise tensions by testing a nuclear device. The US is unable to stop the tests and is unlikely to act militarily.
A possible scenario is that the North will deliberately increase tensions, incur US anger, and instigate a crisis. China will then prevail upon the North to relent, demonstrating that the US can no longer guarantee East Asian security. Beijing is taking over from a weary, distant state.
Afghanistan
Over the last decade, Russia and Iran have quietly supported the Taliban with weapons, albeit not robustly. Both despise the Taliban but recognize its usefulness. The Taliban is bleeding the US, it will inevitably control a large part of the country, and it may be a useful force against more internationalist jihadi groups such as AQ and ISIL. Both Islamist forces have presences in the country and visions of expansion.
One option the axis has is to encourage the Taliban not to accept a settlement, at least not one advanced by the US. The war drags on and the US appetite for distant wars falters, as does its ability to control events.
A second option might be preferred by China. Beijing has given generous sums to the Kabul government, often in stout briefcases, to strengthen its hold on the country’s natural resources. Eager to exploit Afghanistan, China might be more amenable to a swift settlement. Russia and Iran, as noted, have influence with the Taliban, but also with northern people such as the Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Hazaras. China, Russia, and Iran could bring about their own settlement. Naturally, the deal would call for a US exit, though it might be magnanimous enough to allow US aid to continue.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.