Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing Putin’s would-be blitzkrieg in Ukraine is now a stalemate. The war will continue as long as his troops are across the border. Russia’s economy and state will weaken and the army will become increasingly ineffectual. Defeat is at hand, though official admission isn’t. How much domestic opposition Read More …
Brian M Downing With the failure of the Kyiv and Donbas offensives, Putin is thought to be shifting to a long-term strategy. This could mean a nonstop military campaign or continuous fighting with intermittent formal or informal truces, though Ukraine is unlikely to grant any respite. What will the impact be Read More …
Brian M Downing In 1943, two years after invading the Soviet Union, the Third Reich lost the initiative after a defeat at Kursk. Today, Russia’s lost the initiative, paradoxically not far south of Kursk. The effort to take Kyiv ended in hasty retreat and the Donbas campaign has failed too. Read More …
Brian M Downing Every year Moscow commemorates May 9th. That’s the day in 1945 that Germany surrendered after what Russians call the Great Patriotic War. The West calls the surrender VE Day and it was once stamped on every calendar along with VJ Day and December 7th. The war’s memory Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia failed to reach Kyiv in its opening offensive in late February. It shifted to the Donbas two weeks ago, seeking to trap or grind down Ukrainian forces there. That isn’t faring any better. In fact, it’s gained less ground. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian counteroffensive near Kharkiv is Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s Ukraine war will end in humiliating defeat. The severity and day are uncertain but the cause isn’t. Putin’s army, from top to bottom, has performed abysmally – worse than imaginable for a country claiming major power status. The Russian leadership, or key parts of it, will Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s Donbas offensive is in its tenth day. It’s neither taken significant land nor worn down Ukrainian resolve. Russia has lost the initiative, and maybe more. Severe casualties aside, Putin’s military won’t be the same. The army is the strongest pillar of any autocracy and the one Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia’s much anticipated Donbas offensive is in its second week. Despite reinforcements from the north, furious artillery attacks all along the salient, and confident declarations in Moscow, success is hard to find. Attacks have gained little ground anywhere along the large salient. Most have been beaten back Read More …
Brian M Downing The Russian offensive in the east seeks to expel Ukrainian forces from the entire Donbas area, consolidate positions on the land bridge to Crimea, and position forces for future drives on Odessa and Kyiv. Defeating the offensive will greatly strengthen Ukraine’s position in the Donbas. It will Read More …
Brian M Downing Russia was driven out of the north and needs success in the Donbas to turn the tide. Failure would bring egregious military and political problems from frontline BTGs to the Kremlin inner sanctum. The need for victory can lead to incautious, even desperate moves and self-deception throughout Read More …