Brian M Downing and the world at war. Timely, thoughtful, and nonpartisan analysis of military matters. @BrianMDowning1.
Brian M Downing War is bringing turmoil and instability to Russia. Putin faces trouble from westernized youth, religious and ethnic minorities, army reformers, and unruly Mobiks. The opposition is unlikely to topple the state but it could bring low-level violence that will distract attention and divert resources amid a failing Read More …
Brian M Downing Defeat, imminent or actual, brings discontent, strife, assassination, secession, and breakdown. The Afghan state lost control in 1979 and decades of civil war and fragmentation have ensued. The German army disintegrated late in WWI. Militias clashed in cities, politicians were murdered, and Bavaria tried to secede. A Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin is facing defeat in Ukraine and that will bring deep turmoil to Russia. He will confront opposition from elites and the public. He may be ousted or he may use his considerable wiles to stay in power. Four scenarios will be looked at in this series: Read More …
Brian M Downing Wars build states and bring them down as well. Most states were built on and base their legitimacy on military victory. That was true in Charlemagne’s day, Napoleon’s, and Stalin’s too. Defeat, even without surrender or foreign occupation, undermines governments. The French state was staggered by losses Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s army has been defeated at Kyiv, the Donbas, Kharkiv, and now Kherson. It’s no longer capable of offensive operations and may be incapable of holding anywhere along the expansive but receding front. Russia will be fortunate if winter halts Ukrainian operations. Either way, the Russian army Read More …
Director: Olivia Newman 8/10 Not positive how this film came to my attention. Friend of a friend of….. Something like that. It’s an excellent film blending coming of age with murder mystery and moving from events in 1953 to 1968 and back. Kya Clark in 1953 is a ten-year-old girl Read More …
Brian M Downing The Russian army has been defeated at Kyiv, the Donbas, Kharkiv, and now Kherson. It’s running out of hi-tech weapons and Ukraine is getting more and more of them everyday. Putin’s forces are no longer capable of offensive operations and may be incapable of holding anywhere even Read More …
Brian M Downing Putin’s war on Ukraine is in its ninth month. Offensives in the north and east have failed. His army has lost the initiative and cannot regain it in the foreseeable future, probably not for years. Casualties have been staggering, supply systems are unreliable, and poorly trained and Read More …
Brian M Downing Thus far the Iranian uprising has apparently not led to weakened repressive capacity, divisions in the elite, or opposition in parliament (Majles). This doesn’t bode well. However, separatist movements, terrorism, and foreign pressures may cause deeper problems for the mullahs and generals. Intensified separatism Iran is ruled Read More …
Brian M Downing Over the years since the 1979 revolution, Iran has seen several uprisings against the mullahs and generals. They are part of a long history of protests and democratic aspirations led by young urban dwellers that go back over a century. Previous triggers have been electoral fraud, shortages, Read More …