Brian M Downing
Donald Trump will leave the White House on January 20th, perhaps a bit sooner. Even he now says he will depart, albeit reluctantly. There’s hope that the country will return to at least a modicum of comity. The trials are behind us, a new day is dawning. The divisiveness and secessionism during the War of 1812 was followed by a realization of common beliefs and a shared future – the Era of Good Feelings.
This makes for uplifting exits to grim news reports and troubling essays, but a new era of comity isn’t likely at all. We have few common beliefs and the future is uncertain. Instead of a second Era of Good Feelings we’re more likely to face bitter stalemate and mounting animosities.
Escalation
Political violence has been on the rise in recent years – Ferguson, Baltimore, Charlottesville, Minneapolis, Portland, Chicago, New York, and Kenosha. The January 6th attack on the Capitol was the most shocking. The melee and the politics surrounding it opens the way for more lethal violence legitimized by myths.
The myth of electoral fraud is intact. Adherents are angry, mobilized, and in many cases armed. Many have only the verisimilitude of war service garnered from video games, others have actual military training. Their leader and his party have been ousted from the White House and both Houses of Congress. They’re besieged.
Another myth is the assault on the bastion of privilege, elitism, leftism, and the deep state. They breached its walls, marched with ecstatic ire down the corridors of power, and forced politicians to cower under desks. They’ve demonstrated their numbers and power. That day to them is like the defense of the Alamo or the assault on French tyranny, though they have no idea who Travis and Delacroix were.
The death of one of theirs inside the Capitol will be turned into a martyr narrative – a third myth that will endow the others with sacredness. If George Floyd can be proclaimed a martyr, so can Ashli Babbitt.
America is a target-rich environment – politicians and their offices in the localities, media figures, abortion clinics, and prominent figures in BLM and Antifa. Anyone who crosses them, on TV or in the street, will face consequences.
Armed militias and freelancers on the other side of the political spectrum are no strangers to violence at this point. They will respond in kind. After all, Americans are competitive. Their demonstrations will become more aggressive and low-level fighting will take place in scores of places – urban and rural. Some places will seek autonomy from Washington or see it given to them as authorities will no longer set foot there.
The Republican Party
The GOP today comprises two distinct wings. The older and more mainstream wing has diligently courted working-class and rural people amenable to populist, anti-elite messages. The latter segment has been growing with the rise of talk radio. The courted came out on top in 2016 and forced its partner into degrading positions.
The party is like a bad marriage. The two partners are incompatible, they fight a lot, but they remain together for practical reasons. If the two wings were to go their separate ways, as the Whigs did 170 years ago, neither would be able to win the presidency and majorities in Congress would be unlikely or fleeting.
The GOP must try to find candidates who can appeal to both factions. That was made more difficult last week as GOP stalwarts, weary of four years of degradation, stepped back from opposing the Electoral College vote.
The economy
Protracted turmoil and violence will bring uncertainty – the bane of commerce. Consumers will be more cautious. Businesses that were considering expanding here or bringing manufacturing back to the US may put decisions on hold. For many, foreign options might seem safer.
The world doesn’t judge American products solely on their quality and packaging. They also look at a national aura surrounding them. Today US goods are tarnished by an obnoxious president and turbulent society. Foreign investment in the US will likely suffer as well.
Foreign individuals and institutions hold about 25% of the national debt. They’ve long seen US Treasury issues as solid and reliable. Now they see a government and nation in confusion, the debt over $28 trillion and rising, the economy still hurt by plague, and the Democrats firmly in power and eager to go deeper into debt.
Interest rates may be on the rise for several years. While that used to make T bills more attractive, it will signal declining confidence.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.