Brian M Downing
Over the last twenty years, Putin has made use of Russia’s immense territory and overseas presence to challenge the West, especially the US. His planes and ships menace ours from the Baltic to the Black to the Mediterranean Seas. His mercenaries probe Western-backed forces in Libya and Syria. He helped the Taliban return to power. His troops routinely cross into Norwegian territory and his subs go into Swedish waters.
The Western powers have done very little, so far. The Ukraine war, however, has brought greater unity. More importantly it’s absorbing more and more Russian assets, costing the lives of about 2,500 soldiers a week, and showcasing the weaknesses of the army’s logistics, equipment, and morale.
Russia is mired in an unwinnable war that in a few months or less will bring its army near to paralysis and perhaps local mutinies. Russia’s immense territory and overseas presence now present vulnerabilities. The boot is on the other foot.
The newly-energized West should probe Russian territory and overseas positions. Probes will have little if any impact on Putin. He’s convinced of his infallibility and the West’s irreversible decline.
What’s to be done:
NATO vessels can enter Russian waters from Scandinavia along the Arctic Ocean to Japan, which not coincidentally has recently questioned Moscow’s position in the Kuril Islands, which it seized in 1945. Such actions in Moscow’s waters were part of the Cold War and were manageable.
NATO has already beefed up forces in Eastern Europe. They can periodically move closer to borders with Russia, naturally with fighter aircraft overhead.
Russian access to its Kaliningrad exclave (Königsberg until 1945) could be limited, subjected to searches, or closed off temporarily.
Russian vessels, military and commercial, could similarly be held up as they try to enter the Mediterranean. Turkey has already refused Russian warships entry to the Black Sea and could also prevent their exit. This would cause supply concerns for Russian bases in the Middle East.
Western Libyan forces, which are backed by the US and Turkey, could strike Russian military bases including the new, growing Al Jufra airfield. Russian patrols in Syria could be challenged as well by any number of hostile units.
The Ukraine war may encourage increased opposition to Russia’s presence by disparate groups, including liberal reformers and jihadi groups from Libya to Syria to Central Asia. US should support the former, not the latter.
Probes will make it clear, perhaps appallingly so, to Putin’s generals that the West is more powerful than thought, their army is badly overextended, and the Ukraine war is endangering Russia’s security. The Ukraine war might be judged a “hare-brained scheme” which is what Khrushchev was accused of when ousted in 1964. The generals should take decisive action to withdraw from Ukraine and put Russia on a safer path in world affairs.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.