Brian M Downing
The view here has long been that the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private mercenary army, would cause trouble for Russia. The mercenary leader has been vocal in criticizing the regular army for its lack of aggressiveness and inadequate logistical support to his troops.
After Russian strikes came down hard on his forces, Prigozhin broke with Putin. He took control of the Rostov-on-Don region and sent a column toward Moscow. He hoped to cause paralysis in army and state and lead a jarring uprising. But Prigozhin suddenly called it quits. He’s thought to be headed for Belarus. His soldiers’ fate is unclear, though they are said to be redeploying into Belarus.
The Kremlin
The aura of power around Putin has dimmed. A trusted protégé turned his private army on him. This sounds more like a Third World republic than a major power. A precedent of attempted ouster has been made and may inspire others to plan one more carefully. Putin knows this and will likely launch a Stalin-like purge. Prigozhin may be in exile in Belarus but Stalin eventually got to Trotsky and Prigozhin may not last as long.
Prigozhin advanced three damning ideas in recent weeks: the war was based on army machinations; the generals aren’t conducting the war aggressively enough; and the upper crust aren’t sharing hardships and casualties. These ideas may be better welcomed in the public as the war drags on and the Crimea is besieged.
The army
The Wagner Group fielded the most effective combat units, matched only by airborne units. Prigozhin was able to tap into the aggressive nationalism of criminals and direct it into the steppes. They will likely be closely watched then disbanded and integrated into the army, something Prigozhin and his men vehemently opposed. Indeed, integration was an important factor behind Saturday’s revolt.
Enmity between Wagner troops and the regular army goes back at least to the assaults on Bakhmut where the former showed greater effectiveness and boasted repeatedly of it. Enmity has worsened now. The mercenaries’ loyalty is in doubt and sharp skirmishes between the rivals left many dead. Integration, if it occurred, would damage the army’s cohesion and effectiveness, neither of which has been high. Concerns that Wagner troops will attack Ukraine from Belarus might be less compelling than a glance at the map would suggest.
The Ukrainian offensive is underway. The Russian army has lost quantity and quality and reinforcing buckling areas will be hard. Demoralization and loss of confidence in leaders have undoubtedly worsened and may plague the military indefinitely. This of course presents opportunities for Ukraine.
The ally
Saturday’s events were watched in many world capitals, especially in Beijing. Images of troops hurriedly building defenses on approaches to Moscow must have dismayed Xi. The leader of his only major ally is murdering oligarchs and replacing generals like a floundering despot. His army has suffered hundreds of thousands of casualties and losses continue every week.
China benefits from the Wagner Group’s operations in N Africa and the Middle East. The mercenaries support rulers that provide raw materials to the co-prosperity sphere and more bases for the PLA one day. Disagreements between the Group and Moscow should not interfere with expansion of the sphere.
The West’s greatest concern in Russia, as noted here, would be a systematic effort to turn a spirited horde into a modern army. That would better serve Moscow and Beijing’s interest. After recent events in Rostov and Moscow, Xi may see Putin as an unworthy ally and an obstacle to his nation’s march to global preeminence.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs.Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.