Brian M Downing
An important development in the Libyan conflict took place this week. Russia withdrew its Wagner mercenaries from the western region and deployed fighter jets to the east. The interpretation here is that Putin and Erdogan have struck a bargain: the west remains under the Tripoli government under Turkish influence, and the east stays in Haftar’s hands under Russian and Saudi influence. Putin and Erdogan may be judged the Sykes and Picot of our day – for better or worse.
Libya has never been governed as a whole, at least not in a coherent way. Any effort to begin one now will fail. Perhaps that figured in Putin’s decision to pull back from the fight for Tripoli. If the interpretation of a Russo-Turkish partition turns out to be correct, the impact will be considerable.
Stability in Libya
Qaddafi was ousted not by a single party or army but by a slew of militias, most of them backed by foreign powers. That ensured factional chaos – and an ISIL presence. The Putin-Erdogan agreement may help ease the fighting and bring reasonably stable governments in Tripoli and Benghazi.
The governments have many points of disagreement but both want ISIL and organized crime eradicated. That’s a tall order as the entire region is beset by a large youth cohort and Islamist ideology. However, ISIL will not have the political vacuum it has in eastern Syria, western Iraq, and Yemen. Stability may also bring less exploitation of refugees eager to reach Europe.
Libya has potential. It is rich in oil and gas and has far fewer people than Cairo. Even though oil prices are down hard and $100/bbl may never be seen again, Libya’s wealth could rebuild the country and in coming decades, contribute to regional development.
Saudi ambitions at bay
Riyadh aided in the ouster of Qaddafi and since then has been trying to consolidate its influence. Turkey, long wary of Saudi hegemony in the Islamic world, sent mercenaries and drones that have thus far checked Saudi ambitions.
Saudi hegemony would damage American interests, though few presidents have realized it. A league ranging from the Maghreb to Pakistan would place tremendous economic and military resources in the monarchy’s hands and choke off representative government and human rights. The kingdom’s anti-western doctrines would inevitably cause trouble, as would its long-standing hostility to Israel.
Representative government
The east is firmly in the hands of General Haftar but the west has an elected government in Tripoli. The parliament bickers and debates at length, but it is more consistent with western values than the decrees of a warlord, Wahhabi monarchy, or Islamist shura. Better a weak democracy in the west than endless war in the whole country.
Combined with frail democracies in adjacent Tunisia and Algeria, the Tripoli government could become an embarrassment to Assad, Sisi, and even Mohammed bin Salman. And that’s part of the reason so many states were backing Haftar.
Russian military reach
Libya was once home to Wheelus AFB, just outside Tripoli. After Qaddafi ordered the US out, Russian forces moved in. Later, Putin had to look on as an ally was driven from power with solid backing from his nemesis – NATO. This week he deployed fighter jets to the Al Jufrah airfield in the arid central region. Glasses must have clinked in the Kremlin.
Putin will build up his military position in eastern Libya. One of the more ominous moves would be deployment of supersonic cruise missiles that can hit American ships, including aircraft carriers, anywhere in the Mediterranean. And of course this means the possibility of Chinese naval vessels paying visits to Benghazi in coming years.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.