News and commentary 17 Oct 2015

Saudis punish Russia over Syrian move

As noted here recently, Saudi Arabia would use oil prices to punish Russia for his big move into Syria. The Saudis are not boosting supply as I suspected, but they are offering oil to Poland at reduced prices. Note that Poland is a NATO member and deeply concerned over resurgent Russia.

Iran building up troops inside Syria

Iran, according to Kuwaiti and Israeli media (neither of which approaches Iran impartially), Iran is assembling several thousand troops of its own and from Iraq and Afghanistan to participate in the civil war. Look for the Saudis to respond here too. More money and arms to rebels; perhaps forming another force from Sunni refugees in the Kingdom.

Putin concerned over Islamist dangers in Central Asia

The rise of the Taliban in northern Afghanistan and simmering Islamism in Tajikistan and Uzbekistan has Russia worried, It sees these former SSRs as part of its sphere of influence. Paradoxically, ethnic Tajiks and Uzbeks are among the fiercest enemies of the Taliban. However these ethnic groups are not unified by any means.

Shooting at Shia religious ceremony in Iran

Shots were fired from a car into a group of Shias marking Ashura. No one has yet to claim responsibility. The incident took place in Khuzestan which is an oil-rich province that is home to a large Arab population. This may mark the introduction of ISIL into Iran. ISIL may be retaliating for Iranian operations against it in Syria and Iraq. Alternately, the shootings could have been done by the Arab Struggle Movement for the Liberation of Ahwaz (ASMLA) which is a small Arab separatist movement. Look for possible cooperation between ISIL and ASMLA. ISIL and al Qaeda collaborate with disgruntled Sunnis in Sinai and western Iraq. If ISIL isn’t helping, the Saudis certainly might be.