Brian M Downing
Assad’s rule is over. Russia couldn’t come to his aid, Iran wouldn’t act on its own, and Hisbollah had been whittled down and decapitated. His troops looked around, saw no help, and called it quits. His family’s reign lasted 53 years. Once foreign aid vanished, it fell in a few days. What’s next for the war-torn land?
Reconquest?
HTS is a former al Qaeda franchise. It dropped affiliation and purports to be less extreme. Victory, however, is a heady experience. They may see the heavens have favored them in war and they must rule by the Book in peace. The view here is that Islamist militancy has formed highly effective combat units. Reconquest may be on the agenda. Syria hasn’t been a coherent country for years. It’s been occupied by scores of militias, especially along the borders with Turkey and Iraq. The victorious HTS army will try to regain control of the country. That’s a daunting task.
There are scores of rival forces. They all control territory, if only precariously, and most have foreign backers. Cooperation has never come easily to them. Assad was able to stay in power as long as he did because of chronic rebel infighting. The enemy of their enemy was still an enemy. Some groups may align to stave off HTS efforts to retake the entire country. Israel used to provide airpower to HTS’s previous incarnation but it may now use its clout to keep Syria divided.
The most formidable rival are the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). They are strengthened by American and British advisors and control a large swathe of the northeast and east. Logistics rely precariously on routes through Iraq. HTS may see it as a potential breakaway region in cahoots with old imperial powers. It has already clashed with them, perhaps with Turkey’s support.
HTS sees Lebanon as a weak, divided country that’s home to its Hisbollah enemy and incoming Shia-Alawi refugees. It may see the opportunity to further punish Hisbollah, secure a buffer area, and intimidate the frail government. The region is in flux. Israel might be taking pieces of S Lebanon and land east of Golan. Netanyahu assures the world the recent occupation of Mt Hermon is temporary.
Islamist concerns
Syria will be chaotic for years. That of course makes it attractive to jihadis. There are thousands already serving in various militias and hundreds or even thousands have just been released from Assad’s prisons. Kindred spirits in the region may soon make the trek. Islamist militants will stretch from the Maghreb to Central Asia. The US is deeply concerned. It’s begun an air campaign on ISIL bands.
The Sunni princes
Saudi Arabia and the Emirates have been trying to detach Syria from Iran since civil disorder began in 2011. When that effort failed, they supported rebel groups – until they saw them as Islamist extremists or at least aligned with them. Now the Sunni princes will want to stabilize Syria and bring it into their sphere. Petrodollars will flow in to rebuild the country and influence the government.
Turkey wants to dominate Syria. Its go-ahead to HTS two weeks ago brought sudden victory. Erdogan is as eager to expand Turkish power as Mohammed bin Salman is to expand the House of Saud’s reach. Their competition may give the new Syrian government room for maneuver and independent action. It’s more likely to consolidate fragmentation.
Russia
Putin has suffered an egregious defeat. (So has Iran but that’s a separate article.) He boasted of determination to stand by an ally when he bailed Assad out in 2015. A secure position in the Levant enabled him to make further moves in Libya and elsewhere in N Africa. Now, Assad has fled to Moscow and his bases in Tartus and Latakia are in jeopardy.
Russia is loathed by rebel groups and most Syrians. Its support of Assad protracted the war, entailed deliberate airstrikes on civilians, and even saw the use of chemical weapons. Rebels are currently skirmishing with Russian troops along the Mediterranean and Russian ships have set out from Tartus for fear of imminent drone strikes. (Turkey banned warships from transiting the Bosporus after the invasion of Ukraine so they may be homeless.)
Pro-western forces in Libya could be emboldened to mount attacks on the weakened, overextended Russian soldiers and mercenaries. The same holds for Islamist bands fighting Putin’s troops throughout N Africa. The West should see that proxy forces put Russian positions from Syria to the Maghreb under persistent attack.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.