Brian M Downing
A week ago, Putin’s fortunes were promising. Events in Syria have complicated things. Turkey’s proxy offensive has turned stalemate into rout and Russia faces manpower troubles in its far-flung system.
Ten years ago, Assad’s hold seemed to be slipping away. Rebel armies, backed by Gulf princes, Turkey, and the US, were closing in on Damascus. Israel was conducting tactical airstrikes and encouraging the Druze east of Golan to break free and become a protectorate. Syrian forces retreated from much of the country and concentrated in a Shia-Alawi redoubt in the west.
They held, though not on their own. Rebel forces became increasingly antagonistic and less effective. Hardcore Islamist militias became the strongest and foreign support fell away. Syrian forces were bolstered by IRGC troops, Hisbollah militias, and Russian airpower. Rebel forces retreated to the Turkish and Iraqi borders, fighting eased, and world attention faded. Russia strengthened its positions and expanded operations in N Africa.
Turkey and HTS
Recently, Hayʼat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an islamist force directed by Turkey, launched a surprise offensive. HTS seized Aleppo and sent the Syrian army packing again for the Shia-Alawi redoubt. Russian fighter jets have had to return to the skies.
Why has Erdogan acted now? He’s an ambitious leader determined to restore his country’s lost greatness. Predecessors once ruled the Balkans, N Africa, Mesopotamia, and the Arabian peninsula. He’s not so unwise as to think he can restore the Ottoman Empire but he has designs on parts of Syria. The region is in flux. Israel is taking over Gaza and the West Bank. Nationalist opinion leaders are noting that S Lebanon was in King David’s realm. The IDF incursion is longer than expected.
Syria is weak – the sick man of the Levant. Hisbollah once kept Assad in power but Israel has destroyed its leadership and killed or wounded thousands of its fighters, most notably by Mossad operations. Erdogan isn’t appreciative of Netanyahu’s actions but they’ve provided an opportunity to seize land. HTS is planting Turkish flags.
Turkey and Russia
Erdogan is wary of Moscow. Its imperial nature has been clear for centuries and Putin’s yen for power is bolder than Erdogan’s. Russia’s improving fortunes in Ukraine and the US’s uncertain reliability in the world may encourage Putin to look south. What tsar didn’t want mastery of the Dardanelles? Britain and France promised it to Nicholas amid WWI.
Erdogan recently objected, somewhat out of turn, to any deal whereby Ukraine ceded land to Russia. How far he would go to help Kyiv is unclear but he’s helping in Syria. Turkish proxies have cut off Russian bases on the Mediterranean from Damascus, all but mandating reinforcements.
Putin’s forces are stretched thin. Drives in Kursk and Donetsk have made ground, though only after very high losses. Casualties are mounting in N Africa and turmoil in Georgia may soon require intervention to prevent it from linking with the West.
Shia militias from Iraq are coming to Damascus’s aid. The transit is vulnerable to airpower. Israel will increase attacks on Hisbollah and IRGC troops. The Sunni princes may try again to take Syria out of the Shia-Iranian sphere. Putin’s problems in the Levant are worsening.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.