Brian M Downing
Donald Trump, political and business elites, and a fiercely loyal base will try to bring fundamental political change to the United States. Lincoln, Wilson, and Roosevelt curtailed certain democratic principles such as free speech but only as temporary wartime measures. Trump, however, seeks permanent change in the direction of authoritarianism. Supporters see democracy as allowing moral, political, and fiscal ruin; opponents see democratic institutions as essential to who we are.
America is at a point where about half the public will support a break with democracy and most of the rest are unlikely to do more than protest it. What of the viability of an authoritarian state as outlined here? (http://www.downingreports.com/toward-a-new-american-state/) Could it build a stable new order? Or might it bring unprecedented instability?
The state
Government is already beset by partisan animosities and near paralysis. Efforts to replace tens of thousands of civil servants with loyalists will worsen matters. Every bureau – from HHS and Transportation to State and the Pentagon – will be rent with infighting and resistance, litigation and appeals. The machinery will slow down and perhaps come to a halt.
As appealing as that may be to many followers, America needs laws, policies, processes, and disbursements. America also needs to work with allies at an especially dangerous time. It may be calculated that paralysis would open the door wide to greater presidential power but the days of L’etat c’est moi ended long ago – and not gracefully.
The Religious Right
After a century of sweeping secularization, baleful Supreme Court decisions, and relentless ridicule in media, the faithful see tremendous opportunities to return America to its Christian roots. They have a leader and a movement. They are already at work.
Abortion is being outlawed, often root and branch. In several states, women whose lives are endangered by pregnancy cannot get legal abortions. (By comparison, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Afghanistan under the Taliban are more tolerant.) The LBGT agenda is being rolled back in schools and replaced with religious instruction. The faithful are buoyed by having the commanding heights of Washington come into their hands and establishing guardianship over the Dept of Education, HHS, Homeland Security, and the armed forces.
However, many members of the movement, including prominent ones, are comfortable with present-day reproductive rights and sexual norms and are more focused on secular issues. They want to consolidate their grip on the state, ensure a favorable business environment, and reorder foreign policy away from western democracies. The faithful are useful cheerleaders but awkward players who don’t know the game. Christianizing the state would strengthen the other side. Best to keep them on the sidelines lest they lose the big game.
Disappointment will be keen among those who see compromise as sinful and betrayers as apostates.
The economy
The new state will have less business support than its leaders think – and not only due to political loyalties. Businesses want a stable political-legal environment in which they can make investment, marketing, and hiring decisions. A state lurching from longstanding political-legal arrangements to unknown ones will undermine that environment for years to come. Uncertainty will be all the more troubling with an erratic, vengeful leader untethered by traditional norms and laws.
Opposition to growing numbers of Hispanics, legal and illegal, is central to the populist movement. Its leader promises to expel millions of them. However, businesses have relied on them for years, even in states far from the Rio Grande. Construction, hospitality, and food services can’t operate without them. Expulsion would lead to labor shortages, business slowdowns, and rising prices. This would cause another fissure between base and leadership.
Succession
What comes after Trump? Despite showcased vigor, he’s 78, less than fit, and given more and more to meandering, run-on remarks. His visceral rapport with crowds is unmatched by any prospective replacement. Electoral procedures may be pushed aside but strongmen need significant public support or they face a deluge.
GOP processes have been undermined by a cult of personality and loyalists ensconced in key positions. Succession would be a disorderly struggle between family members, business leaders, and GOP luminaries who’ve opportunistically hitched to the movement. Old guard Republicans such as Cheney and Romney will be proscribed.
An obvious if imprecise analogy would be to successions after the deaths of foreign autocrats. Russia is replete with such cases from Ivan IV to Leonid Brezhnev. The most recent one led to instability, intervention, and collapse.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.