Brian M Downing
Rural-dwellers, opponents of big government, traditional nationalists, working people, and the religious right constitute the popular base. They have emotional attachment to America. When asked if they love their country they unhesitatingly affirm it. Other Americans respond, “Well, yes…but.” The base sees the rest of the country as having gone wrong since the sixties, so much so that they are now in a different country. Their ire, resentment, and hope have coalesced into a powerful movement. They won the presidency eight years ago and are determined to take it back.
Not everyone in the movement shares the love of country. The base is one thing, the top quite another. Political and business higher-ups see the movement as useful. They want to break with American political traditions and bring in a new order. The movement’s leader is more attuned to them than to his base.
Political actors
Demographic trends are worrisome. Young people and minorities lean left and are increasingly militant. Solidly red states in the South are contested. If Texas turns blue, the GOP will be a regional party with little chance of winning the White House. Politicians, consultants, and media personnel recognize that a movement, energized by calculated rallying cries and led by a pugnacious outsider, can be channeled to good use.
Many party stalwarts see the movement as an unacceptable break with the past. Adherents invoke Lincoln, Eisenhower, Goldwater, and Reagan – more in name than in principles. (They aren’t familiar with Hume or Hayek or Friedman.) Stalwarts see no hope of turning the party around. It’s turned on them.
Some politicians are true believers in the movement. Others see it as a problem but also as an opportune vehicle. The driver is erratic and even reckless but he’s attracted loads of passengers and headed them in the right direction. Politicians buckle in warily, bow to the driver, but look to take the wheel in a few years.
Affluent backers
Many business owners, investors, upper management, and professionals feel unappreciated and overtaxed – and often under attack. The top ten percent pay 52.6% of all income taxes, the top one percent hand over 26.3%. The compassion of others, they feel, falls squarely on their shoulders.
People are allowed to vote themselves more and more. A new era of activism is sweeping young people. Law and order is breaking down. Unionization is spreading. An extreme view of equality is taking hold in the academy and courts. Tear gas and nightsticks are out of bounds for now.
Most of the super-rich pay up with only demurrals but a disgruntled elite has emerged and backed the movement. Spectacular business success has brought a new vision unclouded by history, military service, or Constitutional restraints.
They want decisive action to end gridlock, restore law and order, reduce the national debt, and ensure a favorable business climate for the long run. The divisive and left-leaning political system isn’t up to the task and is need of overhaul.
The elite recognizes a new international league emerging. Business and political leaders in many countries see eye to eye on grasping, unruly publics, unreliable governments, and the need for decisive action. They confer and look ahead.
©2024 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.