Brian M Downing
The Houthis began as a movement opposed to rising Saudi-Wahhabi influence in Yemen. They are Shia but their identity and cause are tied more to regional differences than to sectarian doctrines. The north has been fighting the Sunni south for a decade. After many offensives and counteroffensives, the lines have been stable the last few years.
The Houthis have became a potent Iranian ally and received new weaponry to replace the stocks of the old Yemeni army. Since the outset of the Hamas war, the Houthis have joined Hisbollah and various Iraqi and Syrian militias to form a formidable Shia league which, paradoxically but strategically, supports the Sunni Palestinians. They attack Israeli and American targets and now strike shipping in the Red Sea. Chinese shipping has faced no fire.
The US has responded with an international flotilla to protect sea lanes. What do the Houthis want and what are they going to get?
Objectives
The view here is that the Hamas war was initiated with support from Iran and its proxy forces in the region. They in turn are backed by China and Russia. Houthi attacks on Israeli and American targets and aligned shipping underscore the unity between the two countries and complicity in destroying Gaza – Israeli troops, American weapons. A strong US response in the Red sea will have the same impact.
The US-led international flotilla has very little regional participation or support. In the eyes of those in the region, the flotilla is the most recent Western effort to impose its will on Arabs.
The US military will be further stretched amid recruitment shortages and budget fights at home. Parts of the public and Congress may question the advisability of taking on another enemy, especially if fighting goes on.
The Western alliance may show weaknesses. Already, several states have taken their ships out of the US command structure, probably for fear the US may listen too closely to Israeli hardliners and hit harder than necessary.
Responses
Several Houthi boats have already been sunk and attacks on Yemeni soil are probably forthcoming. Initially, a series of limited strikes on Houthi command and control centers, logistical hubs, and infrastructure supporting the war to the south seem promising. A short campaign and the Houthis will desist.
However, the Houthis are no longer the ragtag bands that fought the Sunnis for years. Iran has supplied its ally with drones and missiles which could be used in swarming attacks on the West’s flotilla. Iran itself may use swarming tactics against US ships in the Persian Gulf.
Shia militias in Syria and Iraq could increase their attacks on US troops on both sides of the border. The objective here would be to rally support in Bagdad to expel US troops, as in 2008. Both Shias and Sunnis might be amenable as anger over Gaza is considerable on both sides of the sectarian divide. This would isolate US troops and allies in eastern Syria, perhaps making their positions untenable.
Flareups in the Red Sea, as well as in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and the Gulf will give China a propaganda boon. The US, Beijing will argue, is once again bringing war to the Middle East – this after Chinese diplomacy has brought Iran and Saudi Arabia into promising talks. Better for all parties to call for a US pullback and let the region prosper in the Chinese co-prosperity sphere. The entreaties will find receptive audiences in the Middle East and elsewhere.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.