Brian M Downing
The Islamic Republic is on the move and taking advantage of Israeli-American missteps. The view here has long been that the US would benefit from better ties with Iran. Sunni-Shia enmity would ease and China’s rise in the Gulf would be put off. Israel would benefit too as it would gain strategic assets in the event of a Sunni (MBS) volte face. Only a few decades ago, Israel backed Iran against Iraq and its Sunni backers.
Washington intermittently sought better ties with Tehran ever since the 1979 revolution. Reagan tried in the 1980s but got nowhere. Iran requested dialog after the 9/11 attacks and Sec of State Colin Powell approved, but neoconservatives rejected it out of hand. Obama inked the nuclear deal in 2015 but his successor reneged on it, even though CIA assessed Iran was in compliance. Sanctions and assassinations followed. Calculated Iranian revanchism is underway.
Iran once seemed isolated. Only a fragmented Syria and a few regional militias were on its side. However, it’s gained two major allies. Russia is determined to get back at the US for bringing down the Soviet Union, moving NATO east, and attacking allies in Serbia, Libya, and Syria. China seeks to end the American century and begin the Chinese millennium.
The surprisingly well-organized Hamas attack was the result of IRGC and Hisbollah training in Lebanon. It was shockingly brutal and seemingly senseless, except as part of a broader strategy to upset the status quo. Netanyahu’s response was predictably harsh and heedless. The devastation of Gaza and attendant casualties are angering Middle Eastern publics and focusing rage not only on Israel and US but also on Sunni states aligned against Iran. As the destruction continues, Sunni leaders must choose between domestic upheaval and foreign reappraisal.
Hamas’s attacks, though shocking, have been overshadowed. The IDF campaign has shifted world attention to the plight of Gazans, the absence of movement on the two-state solution over the years, and settler violence on the West Bank. The destruction of Gaza is covered almost nonstop on Al Jazeera of course, but the BBC, France 24, and even American networks cannot avoid covering it now.
Divisions are opening between the EU and US which is closely associated with Israel’s military power. Some European leaders are critical of Netanyahu. The US and Israel are being cornered.
Other outcomes probably weren’t expected by Iran. Western youths are energized and hostile toward conventions, laws, and the powerful. They are rallying in numbers to the Palestinians, often to Hamas, and expressing contempt for Israel, often for Jews. Intemperate voices from campuses and streets aside, Quinnipiac and Economist polls show support for Israel dropping sharply in the American public.
Protests are beginning in Israel among citizens more faithful to their moral traditions than Netanyahu’s hardline policies. The IDF itself may have its refuseniks. Many vocally opposed Netanyahu’s legal changes and West Bank polices. Conflict may emerge in the unity cabinet as some realize what religious-nationalist rule is doing to Israel’s standing.
China may find an opportunity to advance its standing in the world by calling for ceasefire and dialog. Noting that only Israel and the US benefit from sectarian tensions, China may guide Iranian-Saudi cooperation pressing for a Palestinian state – and a regional realignment.
The US and Israel have blundered on Iran and must now scramble to avoid calamity. American influence will suffer badly and Israel will be more isolated than in 1948. At least then it had Iran on its side.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.