Brian M Downing
The Israeli government is being criticized for ignoring Egyptian warnings of a major Hamas strike. There may be a larger intelligence failure – one stretching back years and posing great danger for Israeli security and American standing. The present war isn’t just against Iran, Hamas, and aligned militias. Tehran wouldn’t be putting so much on the line without Russia’s backing. To paraphrase Don Corleone, it was Putin all along.
The Hamas war isn’t large but its impact may be formidable and lasting. Moscow is playing it skillfully thus far. And of course Beijing is in the mix as well. A recent Chinese map omits Israel. It should’ve been seen coming.
The ties
Netanyahu thought his deals with Putin would keep him in line. Israel buys his oil, pumps his oil to Red Sea terminals, and lets his firms develop offshore gas fields. Israel sends technology to Russia and stays out of the Ukraine war, despite urgings from Kyiv and Washington.
The ties added to Israel’s security. Diplomacy has already brought peace with Egypt and Jordan but Syria remains hostile. Without Russian weapons and backing, no Middle Eastern states can wage war as in 1967 and 1973.
Netanyahu thought himself a masterful helmsman and saw calm seas ahead, even though there are Russian bases in nearby Syria and Libya.
The flaws
Netanyahu overestimated Israel’s importance in Russian strategic planning and failed to comprehend Putin’s revanchist vision for the Middle East. The IDF is a potent regional force but of no use to Russia. Chinese technology may not be up to Israel’s but the gap is neither yawning nor unclosable. Arab states offer large and growing markets for Russian and Chinese goods. Bases near Suez, along the Red Sea, and in the Persian Gulf are geopolitical prizes that tsars and premiers could only dream of.
Israeli intelligence, like American and European counterparts, misread Putin until recently. Russia doesn’t want to take its place in the present world order; it wants a new one that restores its power in Europe and the Middle East too.
Russian nationalism has always had a prominent antisemitic vein. It came up with pogroms and protocols to intensify it, often during war. It could hardly have eluded a Leningrad street tough and KGB service wouldn’t have cleansed him of it. Putin’s deference to the Jewish state over the last decade was galling but it’s over. His revanchist nationalism has great aims. Israel and the US are manageable obstacles that will become astonished victims.
The preparation
Russia has stood fast to Iran despite its array of anti-Israel militias, some armed with medium-range missiles. Russia was silent as the IDF struck IRGC and Hisbollah targets in Syria but became critical in recent months. It supported the JCPOA but hasn’t pressed Tehran to refrain from uranium enrichment. Arms sales to Iran are picking up, including advanced fighter aircraft. Iran is returning the favor by sending suicide drones which are used on Ukrainian cities.
Russia has moved closer to Hisbollah in recent years. Israel saw this as a moderating presence. The same holds for Hamas visits to Moscow. However, Russia’s Wagner Group is thought to be transferring air defenses to Hisbollah and another Hamas delegation traveled to Moscow amid the Gaza war.
Russian media have become increasingly anti-semitic. This couldn’t have happened without Kremlin approval and it’s a clear signal the pretense of comity is over. Official pronouncements decry the loss of civilian lives in Gaza. The play is to the Arab street who are well aware of American loyalties.
The plan
Russia and Iran have improved the discipline and fighting ability of Hamas fighters, probably on clandestine bases in the Beqaa valley. They are not the equals of western or Israeli troops but they nonetheless executed a complex offensive. The massacres had an ISIL-like ferocity. It was calculated.
Predictably, Netanyahu’s response will be pitiless. IDF airstrikes will destroy much of Gaza and kill and displace huge numbers of civilians. Ground operations face determined resistance fighting block by block with nothing to lose. Mosul on the Mediterranean.
Arab populations will follow the destruction in Gaza on Al Jazeera and become more and more restive. Leaders will be upset by Israel’s harshness and insensitivity toward their stability. Some governments will face upheaval. Ambassadors have already been recalled.
Iranian proxies in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq will attack American positions. This will threaten a wider war and focus attention on US-Israeli unity of purpose. US support will be strong, demurrals only brief.
Global hostility toward the US and Israel will intensify. Whatever moral high ground they may claim will erode. Many EU countries will face deeper polarization. Younger cohorts are more energized and left-leaning than anytime – even 1968. They’re politically engaged, sympathetic toward the oppressed, hostile toward power, and increasingly violent.
Russia and China will call for ceasefires and dialog and present themselves as evenhanded outsiders. They will note the West has repeatedly mistreated Middle Easterners, intervened in their affairs, and tried to subjugate them. The US is joined at the hip to Israel and will never approach regional matters fairly.
The overtures will find receptive ears in many Middle Eastern capitals. It’s common sense on the streets. Putin and Xi may even win public acclaim. They will advise moving away from the US. Russia and China offer a new order of evenhandedness, proper authoritarian governance, and a dynamic economic sphere in which the Middle East can industrialize and prosper.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.