Brian M Downing
Unsuccessful military revolts in Russia usually bring fierce retribution. Peter the Great tortured and killed hundreds of Streltsy after their 1698 uprising. Nicholas I did the same to the Decembrists after the Napoleonic wars. Stalin insisted Russian turncoats be repatriated and they were executed upon disembarkation from allied ships. The crewmen heard the shots.
Thus far, Putin’s wrath has yet to come down on the Wagner Group. Its units are intact, recruitment goes on, Prigozhin lives. This isn’t attributable to Putin’s conciliatory nature. He has concerns and interests.
Concern with further revolt
Dismantling the tens of thousands of Wagner troops poses risks. They are well-armed, highly effective, and have already resisted integration into the army. Indeed, that was one reason for last week’s revolt. They would put up fierce resistance, tie down many thousands of army troops at a critical point, and call upon Russians to rally to them.
Prigozhin was cheered in Rostov and elsewhere. He’s presented himself in numerous video presentations as an effective wartime commander – superior to those in the high command and Kremlin. Though his gains around Bakhmut were minimal and costly, he’s widely viewed as some sort of Viscount of the Donbas.
Putin is mindful of that image, as Stalin was of the prestige of his generals whom he feared would become popular threats to his rule. Putin must be careful in detaching Prigozhin from his troops and popular following. However, it’s hard to see the Viscount living out his years in a lavish dacha.
Usefulness
Russia badly needs effective troops. Regular troops showed their heels around Kharkiv and Kherson and their effectiveness is questionable, despite replacements and relative inactivity. The Ukrainian offensive is underway in the northeast, east, and on the land bridge, and Russian positions are giving way albeit slowly in all three areas. Reliable reinforcements will be needed to prevent breakthroughs. The regular army doesn’t have them. The Wagner Group does.
Belarus
Wagner forces are said to be redeploying into Belarus. Putin helped keep his ally there in power after spirited demonstrations over rigged elections. With lingering unrest and sporadic attacks on infrastructure supplying the Russian army, the Wagner Group may be be called upon to protect railways and guard against unrest. Another concern is that Lukashenko will try to make the Valkyries his private army. They might also be used for another drive on Kyiv, though their questionable loyalties and depleted ranks make it unlikely for now.
China’s sphere
The Wagner Group made a name for itself well before the Ukraine war. Its troops solidified the Assad regime in Damascus and Haftar’s grasp on eastern Libya. Elsewhere in MENA, they are holding up governments, countering jihadis, and acquiring lucrative assets along the way. The Group is important to China’s ambition to expand control of natural resources and perhaps host military bases one day.
If Putin disbands Wagner, its mercenaries in faraway countries would either become independent actors aligned with local rulers and outside Moscow’s reach, or they would disintegrate leaving a vacuum. Either way, Russia’s influence in the region would decline, as would its utility to China.
©2023 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.