Brian M Downing
No country is in more need of military reform than Russia. That became clear a month into the Ukraine war and there’s been no discernible change. Putin built a Potemkin army. BTGs are poorly trained hordes motivated by prospects of glory, mayhem, and pillage. This leads to incompetence on the battlefield and murderousness off it. Officers are promoted for loyalties, not qualifications. The higher the rank, the more this holds. Equipment is substandard to begin with and poorly maintained thereafter.
Ukraine is grinding the Russian army into dust. Putin’s army could never hold up against NATO in Europe or against China in Central Asia. Most generals, intelligence chiefs, and industrial barons know this but publicly stating it could lead to death. Holding fast to the failing army and the system that built it is making Russia the sick man of Eurasia.
Thorough reform of army and state is needed. For Ukraine, the West, and much of the world, it’s the worst possible outcome of the war. The Beijing-Moscow alignment would be fearsome and scores of countries would have to take heed. Happily, reform is unlikely to come about in such a decrepit domain.
Military reform
Wars and the threat of war have led military and political leaders to build modern, powerful armies. Peter the Great saw danger from Western armies in the early 18th century and imitated them. The Prussians were defeated by Napoleon which led to the Stein-Hardenberg Reforms that liberalized army and state.
Ten years ago the Ukrainian army was corrupt and lax. Russia’s 2014 invasion of the east and Crimea caused consternation and recognition of the need for change, lest the country become a province of Moscow again. Ukraine professionalized its officers, built an authoritative NCO corps, modernized its equipment, and trained with Western advisers. The present war is between a reformed and unreformed army. It’s no match.
The most famous reform effort was the Meiji Restoration of 1860s Japan. Seeing the West exerting control over imperial China, and fearing they were next, Japanese barons studied the armies, navies, states, and industries of European powers and copied them at home. Japan rapidly became a major industrial-military power, defeating Russia in 1904-05 and beginning an imperial trajectory.
Are there Russian Meijis?
Putin has the ambition to make his country a great power and has the power to see reforms through. Ambition has probably been infused with desperation in recent months. However, he and his coterie are unlikely to reform the system. That would admit failure at a critical time and invite strong opposition. It’s their army and equipment and officers that are being destroyed in Ukraine, not those of Yeltsin or Gorbachev. They cannot offer change and reform, only more defeats and purges. Any reform begun by them would be limited in scope and rolled back as soon as possible.
Below the top are colonels and generals, high functionaries and mangers. They know what went wrong in Ukraine. It’s the same rotten system that thwarted their careers, awarded army contracts to Putin loyalists, fired and murdered opponents, and brought the country to where it is. Reformers could build a loyal base by offering hope of restored honor, greater prestige, and deserved victory. Russia will be powerful and victorious, as it was in Stalin’s days. Reformers would need popular passions to deploy against the old guard.
China could be a model and teacher. Elite rule in Beijing has, in a few decades, built an industrial-military power, vying with the US across the world. Its business and army leaders once learned from Russian counterparts but are now their betters. Beijing needs a strong, aligned partner stretching across the Eurasian land mass. Putin isn’t able to fulfill his part of the deal. China may want a new partner in Moscow.
Timing was critical for the Meiji reformers. Europe was busily extracting concessions from China, which was larger and more lucrative than Japan. The US was on the verge of imposing treaties on Japan but became distracted by the Civil War. The Meiji barons seized upon the respite to forge a new country. Russia must not be granted any respite, whether from ceasefire or promises, which would allow it to become a more capable predator.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.