Brian M Downing
The Russian army has been defeated at Kyiv, the Donbas, Kharkiv, and now Kherson. It’s running out of hi-tech weapons and Ukraine is getting more and more of them everyday. Putin’s forces are no longer capable of offensive operations and may be incapable of holding anywhere even in winter.
Where’s this leading? Russia cannot defeat Ukraine and Ukraine isn’t going to drive deep into Russian territory to force its hand. Several issues are coming to the fore: dialog and ceasefire, coherence in the Russian army, political stability, and national coherence.
Dialog and ceasefire
In recent months Germany, the EU, and other world powers have called for negotiations. The Biden administration has recently done so as well. Support for dialog draws from general antipathy toward war that Europe, once enthralled by militarism and imperialism, has had since the world wars. It is prominent in Germany and especially so in regard to Russia, which it invaded and devastated in WW2.
No one is benefiting from the war in Ukraine. Casualties are high and the war’s impact has spread around the world. An agreement would prevent a cold winter and world hunger, and lead to a lasting peace. Dialog and ceasefire sound good but they won’t help Ukraine, only Russia.
Russian thinking
Neither the Kremlin, nor the military leadership, nor much of the public are prepared to accept peace with Ukraine. Dialog between Moscow and Kyiv would not lead to lasting peace. Moscow would seek a truce of a year or so, not to negotiate a peace, but to rebuild its military. It would then renew the effort to retake lost territory.
Images of a westernized, consumer-oriented, and fundamentally changed Russia were highly misleading. The prevailing mindset in the state, army, and public is restoration of the power prestige established by Stalin in wars against the West and the tsars against the Mongols, Teutonic Knights, Turks, and others. That military cornerstone of the nation crumbled when Gorbachev tried rapprochement with historical enemies, many of whom are now backing Ukraine.
Russians ardently want restored power prestige and will not negotiate it away. The war has presently seen little diminution of the ardor. In fact it has thus far intensified militaristic nationalism and imperial ambitions. This may change in a year but for now the conflict is popular and negotiations aren’t desirable, except as a ruse to rebuild the war machine and bring victory. Hundreds of thousands of those opposed to the war have fled the country and conscription, strengthening Putin.
No truce, no respite
Kyiv knows well of Russian militarism and ambitions, especially since the 2014 seizure of Crimea and parts of the Donbas. Dialog would lead nowhere but to a reinvigorated enemy and another onslaught. Ukraine has already inflicted grievous damage to Russia’s army. Winter is coming and that bodes Ill for an army with flagging morale and poor logistics. Russia can be driven from most of Ukrainian territory within a year, sooner if collapse comes. Pressure must continue on the enemy. No truce, no respite. Protracted attrition of the Russian military is critical for Ukrainian security.
The consequences of protracted war on the Russian state, public, and economy will be looked at next.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.