Brian M Downing
Every year Moscow commemorates May 9th. That’s the day in 1945 that Germany surrendered after what Russians call the Great Patriotic War. The West calls the surrender VE Day and it was once stamped on every calendar along with VJ Day and December 7th. The war’s memory has faded in the West but the commemoration in Russia has long stirred national pride in the public and conferred legitimacy upon rulers.
Troops and tanks are practicing for this year’s rite but the numbers will be lower. Too many have been ground down on the roads to Kyiv and the eastern steppes – so many Putin may call for mobilization. The celebration might have unintended irony and intended surprises. It won’t be VU Day.
Officialdom questioned
The celebration is of course planned to stimulate support for the Ukraine war. It’ll succeed fairly well as pride in wars past and in service today remain formidable and exploitable. But there’ll be an undercurrent of disillusionment and ire as many recall official assurances of swift victory and conclude things aren’t going well to the south.
People can become inured to lies and cant from leaders. However, deception regarding war casualties is unpardonable and corrosive. Official casualty reports, when given, are far lower than Western estimates. The Kremlin says only one crewman was killed in Moskva’s putative accident. Family members who try to learn more are told to back down.
Owing to pride in the military and national conscription, most Russians know someone in the service. Many know someone who’s been reported killed in Ukraine or who was known to have been there but is no longer heard from. Some bodies come home and interments take place in solemn ceremonies, but for thousands of others there’s no word. Deception and threats from government will cause whispers of an extraordinarily high toll.
Opposition emboldened
Demonstrations against the war are tolerated, though watchful security forces swoop in when lines are crossed. Holding up signs or speaking out brings swift arrest. Teachers who express criticism in classrooms are fined and intimidated. The state is encouraging people to report subversives, as in the days of Dzerzhinsky and Beria.
Opposition may be stronger today owing to Putin’s dismantling of the openness, limited though it was, that had been part of Russian life since Gorbachev. Russians see an ominous return to the days of Brezhnev and perhaps Stalin.
Monday will likely see widespread counter-demonstrations. Ukrainian flags and antiwar graffiti may abound, though not many near Red Square. Protesters will be gauging security troops for signs of hesitation or sympathy. Western media will cover events as best they can.
In the nineteenth century, Russian revolutionaries such as Nechaev and Zasulich all but invented terrorism, killing scores of officials and a tsar. In recent weeks there’ve been fires at several sites related to the war. A Moscow recruiting station was struck with Molotov cocktails. May 9th could see a wave of violent opposition.
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Putin’s May 9th celebration will be overshadowed by large rallies, held in free cities around the world, supporting Ukraine and condemning Russia. There will be few soldiers, no tanks – and no Russian coverage.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.