Brian M Downing
The Russian offensive in the east seeks to expel Ukrainian forces from the entire Donbas area, consolidate positions on the land bridge to Crimea, and position forces for future drives on Odessa and Kyiv.
Defeating the offensive will greatly strengthen Ukraine’s position in the Donbas. It will also set the stage for breaking the land bridge by attacking the port of Mariupol from the north and driving east along the coast from Kherson.
Ukraine has three ways to counter the Donbas offensive,
Spoiler attacks
Attacks outside the Donbas salient can disrupt Russian operations. Ukrainian forces have already moved against Kharkiv in the north and Kherson on the Black Sea. The latter advance could cause dismay and overreaction in Russian command centers as it could lead to Ukrainian positions just above the Crimea. The peninsula was seized in 2014 and its ports have been crucial to operations in the Mediterranean Sea, Syria, Libya, and Mali.
Cross-border incursions into Belarus have been suggested here. They would force Russia to maintain a sizable presence there and encourage opposition to their dictator and his backer in Moscow. Some incursions could be done by Belarusian troops serving with Ukrainian forces.
Russian pincer-encirclement effort
Ukraine’s strongest concern is Russian drives from Izyum and Donetsk trapping tens of thousands of its troops in the Donbas salient. Blunting such drives is central to winning the eastern campaign and the entire war. Russia has made little progress so far around Izyum and Donetsk, either because they’ve made no major effort or because they have, but failed.
In any case, if Russia were to make successful inroads, they would face stiff frontal resistance, persistent attacks along exposed flanks, and possible encirclement from behind by nimble, spirited Ukrainian units. The trappers may themselves be trapped, with no more likelihood of rescue than the Wehrmacht at Stalingrad.
The salient periphery
The Russian encirclement attempt may have failed already. Alternately, the efforts from Izyum and Donetsk were part of a campaign to grind down Ukrainian forces all along the salient. Russia will press home attacks, with strong artillery support, from a half dozen or more points in the expectation of inflicting heavy casualties and finding soft points to exploit with armor thrusts.
Ukrainian forces are in well-prepared positions and will probably inflict more casualties than they sustain. They may be willing to give ground along the salient, secure in the knowledge that every few kilometers given means the Russians have more casualties, greater logistical strain, and more exposure to guerrilla attacks behind them.
The Ukrainian response might be likened to Muhammad Ali’s “rope-a-dope” strategy of letting his larger opponent tire himself out delivering minor body blows, then moving in and putting him on the canvas. Thus far, the Russians are playing their role quite well.
After a few weeks of continued high casualties without significant progress, morale and discipline will suffer badly. Russia may find itself sprawled flat on the Ukrainian steppes.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.