Brian M Downing
Putin’s blitzkrieg has failed. Ukrainian troops fighting with superior determination and weapons have blunted it. Putin’s hope to exploit fissures in NATO has fizzled as well. The alliance is stronger than at any time since the ink dried on the treaty. The alliance may even add Finland in coming months.
Russian casualties have been high. Pravda, a Kremlin source best known for obsequiousness to the state, inadvertently stated that 9,600 soldiers had been killed in just under a month. That’s significantly below Ukrainian estimates but only somewhat higher than Western ones. Pravda pulled the estimate a few hours later. There’s at least some truth in Pravda, it just doesn’t stay online long.
Ukrainian forces are taking back their territory. They may in coming weeks close a noose around tens of thousands of Russians outside Kiev. The prospect would force a hurried and probably disorderly withdrawal and end Russian offensive capabilities. If Ukrainian forces are unable to close the noose, or if they decide such a decisive blow would lead to outrage and egregious escalation by Putin, the war will become a war of attrition.
Russian attrition
Putin himself authorized the shift in strategy. He’s the autocrat. His generals may have played a critical role in convincing him. (There’s a small possibility they’ve taken control of the war from a blundering ruler.)
Russia may view the shift as only a pause – gaining time to replace casualties, firm up logistics, find better generals, and renew the onslaught. There’s no reason to think Russia can ever effect a decisive victory but of course its leaders might think otherwise.
If Russia does pursue an attrition strategy, it will seek to wear down Ukrainian forces until they break, opening the way to aggressive armored thrusts deep into the country. Russia, however, will allocate more resources into destroying cities in the hope the Ukrainian people and government will give up. This too is unlikely. Destroying cities are strengthening Ukrainian resolve and making them fight all the more resolutely – block by block, field by field.
The Russian template was used in Grozny during the Chechen rebellion and on Aleppo and other Syrian cities. Putin grew up in postwar Leningrad, a city besieged, starved, and bombed by the Third Reich for 900 days. He should know what a resolute people can endure.
Ukrainian attrition
Kiev has been fighting a war of attrition all along, hoping to wear down Russian troops until they can no longer function. It’s halfway there. Russia, having lost hope of a quick victory, must shift to the same strategy. The Ukrainian army should continue to attack Russian troops near Kiev. It must not allow a lull in fighting that Moscow would exploit to rebuild.
More Javelins, NLAWS, and MANPADs are flowing in. Switchblade loitering drones are being introduced. Russia has been unable to stop land deliveries from the West. Former Soviet allies may deliver S-300 air defenses that can shoot down the Russian aircraft, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles that have been devastating Ukrainian cities.
Guerrilla groups, trained and spontaneous, should pick up attacks behind Russian lines and along supply routes. Fighting in Mariupol and other cities may inflict jarring casualties. Remember the urban battles in Sirte during the Libyan uprising where ragtag militias broke Qaddafi’s supposed elite Khames brigade, and Kobane where Kurdish bands mauled the seemingly invincible ISIL army. The battle of Mariupol may break Russian forces in the south.
High casualties will exacerbate flaws in the Russian army (poor leadership, too many unmotivated draftees, and harsh discipline rather than camaraderie) to cause serious trouble. Large numbers of troops may or refuse orders or follow them only partially and slowly. They may desert or resort to self-inflicted wounds. The same can be said of Syrian and Chechen troops – Belarusians as well if they are brought into the war.
A war of attrition favors Ukraine. Its troops have superior morale, discipline, weaponry, and they fight on territory they know, near citizens who support them. The Ukrainian state is unified. The Russian state is beginning to see infighting. The purges are underway.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.