Brian M Downing
The focus of the Ukraine War is shifting. Thus far, attention has been on Kharkiv in the northeast and of course on Kiev to the west. However, Russian troops have been moving along the Black Sea coast from the Crimea toward Odessa. Naval gunfire is presently coming down on the old port founded in the days of Catherine the Great and home to the Potemkin Steps made famous in an Eisenstein film. A siege may be coming, an assault to follow.
Why Odessa
The Russians want to control the Black Sea coast. This will shut off export routes, which bring in revenue to Ukraine, and supply lines, which bring it weaponry. (Other lines from NATO powers to the west may be next.) Longer term, Odessa’s naval facilities would add to those Russia obtained when it seized Sevastopol eight years ago, enhancing capacities to project power into North Africa and the Middle East.
Moscow may believe that taking Odessa will turn the tides of war or at least bolster flagging morale. An assault may be coordinated with attacks on Kharkiv and Kiev. Moscow may further calculate that besieging Odessa will force Kiev to reinforce the south and make the north more vulnerable.
Forces
The Russian navy has heretofore played a limited role in the war and no branch of any military wants that. It will seek to bolster its standing in the Kremlin with a skillful air, sea, and ground campaign. Airborne forces may also be used, though they’ve taken very steep casualties in recent bungled operations.
The defenders know what’s in store and are prepared. Ukraine possesses Neptunes, its own anti-ship cruise missiles, but has not used them thus far. It has, however, used Grad multi-tube launch systems to strike Russian vessels. The Neptunes, Grads, conventional artillery, and drones may inflict serious damage on ships off the coast and landing craft as they make their way to shore.
Landing operations are complicated and dicey, as Eisenhower and MacArthur knew well. Careful timing, favorable weather, and close coordination of air, sea, and ground forces are crucial. The Russian military has yet to demonstrate an ability to coordinate forces and Fortress Odessa does not augur well for a change in fortunes. The fight may be another disappointment for the Kremlin, perhaps even a debacle that will further demoralize invading forces.
The legendary Potemkin mutiny (1905) took place off the coast of Odessa. Russian sailors amid a war with Japan rebelled against inept leadership and poor food. The mutineers killed several officers and sailed to Rumania where they were granted asylum.
©2022 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to fellow Hoya Susan Ganosellis.