Brian M Downing
The results are in and the hardliners have won. That’s hardly surprising as a guardian council narrowed the field to a handful of hardliners. It’s as though all American candidates were chosen by Red or Blue apparatchiks. Low turnout did not help the reform movement. The winner last week, Ebrahim Raisi, a zealous cleric and prosecutor, has the fearsome and well-deserved reputation of a Cheka commissar – the Dzerzhinsky or Beria of the Islamic Republic. Raisi has overseen harsh repressions and mass executions, and is not done yet.
The Neoconservatives, Likudniks, and Sunni monarchs wanted Iran to descend into chaos like Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen. That never happened. A hardliner like Raisi is the next best thing. He presents an off-putting face for his country which makes continued pressure more defensible and rapprochement with the US impossible. Raisi’s rule will also cause despair in urban young people. Some will be attracted to terrorism which will find support from existing groups and foreign powers.
Abiding enmity between Iran and the US will bring trouble. Raisi and his new government, seeing global change afoot, have aligned with Beijing and Moscow to hit the US wherever possible. Iran, a country with a large population and one of the better militaries in the region, is part of a global tide opposed to democracy and US power and supportive of authoritarian rule and Chinese-Russian ascendance.
Tehran and democracy
A form of government revered in the West and a few other countries is not desired in an increasingly large portion of the world. Many
political, military, religious, and business elites do not want to share power. In their self-serving view, democracy brings civil disorder, moral decay, fiscal woes, and a hyper-individualism that erodes social norms. Democracies are increasingly led by amateurs, dilettantes, and egotists who manage their countries under the influence of donors and lobbies.
Iran has been hit hard by those donors and lobbies. Bush the Younger called for regime change but became mired in an insurgency in Iraq, factions of which were strategically backed by Iran. Obama brought the JCPOA but that was undone by Trump. Now Biden is trying to undo the damage.
From Tehran’s perspective Washington offers nothing. Presidents cannot rein in Israeli- and Saudi-backed attacks. In three years American voters may put Trump or someone like him in the White House, who will again try to gravely weaken Iran.
The ruling elite sees itself as essential to defending their nation from the US and its allies and it will work closely with China and Russia to weaken the US. That will shore up their security situation and bolster their legitimacy. Indeed, having stood up to the US is a major pillar in clerical-military rule.
China and Russia
Iran, and many other authoritarian countries, will strengthen ties with Beijing and Moscow. Military, business, and religious elites see China managing its economy well, ensuring national defense, and keeping domestic groups to heel – with hi-tech and brute force. These capacities will be increasingly desirable as populations become larger, more demanding, and more threatening.
Russia has shown its ability to keep domestic groups within bounds and allies in power. They do so through military intervention with regular forces and mercenary troops such as the Wagner Group which are steadily expanding their presence in Africa and the Middle East.
Authoritarian elites see integration into Beijing’s co-prosperity sphere as offering economic growth and personal emoluments. China’s economy will be number one in a decade or so. Its political clout is not far behind if at all. China is the wave of the future and so is its form of government.
The notion that Iran wants rapprochement with the US is naive. After decades of interference, crippling and unjustified sanctions, and a string of assassinations and bombings Iran wants vengeance not rapprochement. Tehran shares Beijing and Moscow’s interest in weakening the US and is eager to play a role in that portentous shift. Iran has a network of militias and allies and may soon more robustly use oil subsidies and petrodollar investments to expand its influence in much the way Saudi Arabia does. American positions in Iraq and Syria will become more tenuous and costly. Ties with Venezuela, Nicaragua, and Cuba will expand. Tehran has played a role in getting the US to quit Afghanistan.
The upshot of the decades-long Iran policy is not regime change, collapse, or cordiality. Washington has created a more ruthless and determined enemy that has availed itself of emerging geopolitical changes. Iran today is a regional economic and military power opposed to democracy, the US, and American power in the world. Tehran sees the US in decline and wants to contribute to steepening the descent.
© 2021Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.