Brian M Downing
Iraq and Syria
The axis states, China, Russia, and Iran, want the US out of Gulf. Iran, convinced another anti-Iran presidency may be only four year off, doesn’t wants US troops on its borders. China wants to to secure oil sources and wants to become, along with junior partner Russia, the guarantor of the Gulf, as the US has long been.
Iran is in the lead here. It has had considerable influence with Iraqi militias, tribal leaders, and politicians since the war in the 1980s. Shia militias will continue to hit US positions in Iraq and endure retaliatory strikes from US aircraft. Meanwhile, Iran will build a political consensus to order the US out, as it did in 2008.
The ouster would be an embarrassment. It would also make the US position in eastern Syria more difficult if not untenable. Leaving the east would be even more embarrassing as it would hand back rich agricultural land and oil fields to Damascus and cause an ignoble pullout.
Venezuela
Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Nonetheless, it produces less crude than North Dakota. This isn’t due to OPEC restrictions but to exceptionally poor government management.
China and Russia want Venezuelan production back up. More relevant to US interests, they want the revenue to be used strategically to garner regional support for their new order. Saudi Arabia has used petrodollars to buy influence in foreign countries. Money goes to schools, mosques, politicians, and generals. Today, Riyadh has built substantial support in Egypt, Sudan, and Pakistan. Similarly, Russia has used oil to win support along its periphery.
If Venezuelan production can return to former levels, it will expand its influence in Latin America. Anti-US sentiment has long been high and Washington’s recent words and actions have done nothing to quell it. The region may be receptive to alignment with Caracas, Beijing, and Moscow and becoming part of a regional defense pact and global co-prosperity sphere.
The Ukraine
Russia has already seized the Crimea and much of the Donbas of the eastern Ukraine. Recent reports note a buildup of Russian troops along the Belarus-Ukraine border – only seventy-five miles from Kiev. Putin is eager to flex his muscles, intimidate Eastern Europe, and show the limits of American power and Biden’s resolve.
An all out invasion and annexation is improbable. However, an incursion or serious threat to cross the border, in the east or near Kiev, could be used to force handing over the east and recognizing Russian control of the Crimea.
Even this is improbable, though the assessment of ambitious ruler might differ from those of a distant analyst. Further aggression in the Ukraine could scotch Nord Stream 2. Even a shallow incursion could bring a long conflict with determined Ukrainian guerrillas motivated by resurgent nationalism.
Taiwan
The view here is that an assault on Taiwan isn’t likely in the next few years. The Nationalist forces would have the advantage of prepared defenses, PLA ships would be vulnerable offshore for several months, Taiwan’s allies might well intervene and choke off Chinese commerce, and East Asian countries would go nuclear.
Beijing might set its sites on smaller islands under Taiwan’s control that lie only a few miles off the mainland. The Kinmen islands, once known as Quemoy and Matsu, were hotspots in the 1950s. Washington sent warships to patrol nearby waters. Today, the islands are indefensible, the consequences for Beijing manageable.
(See “Is China about to attack Taiwan? Parts 1-3” http://www.downingreports.com/is-china-about-to-attack-taiwan-part-one/)
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.