Brian M Downing
The Biden administration has three alternatives for Yemen: increase US involvement, step back and let the war proceed as it will, or press hard now for negotiations.
Decisive military action
The US may assess the present situation as one that can be remedied by immediate, forceful action. The Houthis can be halted and driven back by a limited number of US airstrikes. They will then be more amenable to negotiations and more flexible once they’ve begun. Or so the story will go.
Saudi Arabia and Israel are probably calling for this and their combined influence is formidable. Biden’s meek response to his own publication of the CIA’s Khashoggi findings showed that.
The “a little pressure will bring big results” refrain is a familiar if tuneless one . It boasts of America’s military might and its admirable restraint as well. The refrain should have dwindled to soft, unheeded whispers by now.
Airstrikes on North Vietnam began in 1964 with that in mind. Operation Flaming Dart became Rolling Thunder and then Linebacker 1 and 2. Division after division were sent into the South. But perhaps analogies to Vietnam have become stale and indicative of a mind stuck in the past.
More recently, a US-trained force could tip the scales in Syria, end the civil war, and oust Assad. The Obama administration was confident of that and trained groups to do just that. They disintegrated or went over to Turkey where their preference for garrison life over combat operations remains intact.
Obama’s successor, perhaps influenced by his son-in-law from the real estate trade, was sure that sanctions on Iran would bring down the mullahs and generals and usher in democracy – or at least bring the regime to heel. A little pressure on the Houthis is unlikely to be any more successful.
Step back from events
Refraining from military or any other action is often the best course. After all, the US cannot solve the world’s problems. After a slew of interventions over the last twenty years or more, policy makers and generals are realizing that.
The Yemen situation, however, has a humanitarian, military and diplomatic urgency. Starvation and plague are spreading, though this is of only limited importance in world capitals, including Washington.
The Houthi offensive may signal a new phase in the war which would make matters more vexing. The drive could turn south and push the Sunni bands back toward Aden again. The Sunnis are divided and worn down by fruitless assaults on Houthi defenses.
The Emiratis once had troops in the fight and they might feel compelled to send them back. Saudi troops remain unfit for combat and are still reeling from a 2019 engagement in which the Houthis mauled three Saudi brigades.
The Sunni monarchs could also seek to press Egypt and Pakistan, two states that received generous subsidies, to send troops. They have thus far refused.
The Saudis may up their airstrikes on the Houthis and, in light of the Houthi offensive, press the US and other suppliers to lift pauses on weapons sales help the effort.
Of course, the Houthis could respond with an incursion into the kingdom. And the Saudis and Israelis could step up attacks inside Iran.
Press for diplomacy
The best alternative is to press hard for negotiations – chaired by the US and with as few non-Yemeni participants as possible. The most likely viable outcome is a partition between the two disparate regions.
The north-south differences have historically had far less to do with Sunni-Shia tensions than with with cultural legacies.The north was long an Ottoman province, the south a British protectorate – different worlds then, different outlooks today. Sectarian passions have entered in recent years but have not surpassed the historical differences.
Continuous civil war over the last half century should bring realization that unity is impractical. The war has been stalemated for a while and the frontlines might be a starting point for a line of demarcation. The US and the regional would benefit.
Bartering an amicable separation would improve America’s image in the region which today is shaped by military actions and deference to Saudi Arabia.
The south would be able to deal more effectively with AQ and ISIL groups who have ensconced themselves in tribal regions and even hold a few sizable towns.
The US will have served notice to MBS that it is not at his beck and call. He is a ruthless, ambitious ruler who could be in power for the next sixty years. Better to set him right sooner rather than later.
Letting the war drag on would open the door to Chinese diplomacy. Beijing is on good terms with both Saudi Arabia and Iran. It buys copious amounts of oil from each side and wants stability in the Gulf and peripheral states. A sectarian squabble is a irrelevance that can only slow down China’s march to restored greatness.
If China were to take the lead in diplomacy, it would improve its standing in the world. Beijing knows it would signal a new day in the world, much as when the US helped settle the Russo-Japanese War at the outset of what became the American Century.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.