Brian M Downing
Rapprochement or revenge?
Iran wants sanctions relief but there’s presently a good deal of diplomatic folderol in the way. Iran wants the sanctions lifted immediately and will return to JCPOA enrichment levels later. The US wants to hold off lifting sanctions until Iran complies with the JCPOA. Qatar and France will probably negotiate a phased return to the status quo ante Trump. Beyond that, however, there are serious, perhaps insurmountable obstacles to better relations. Washington faces some of them but focus here will be on the view from Tehran.
First, the leadership and most of the public are livid over the US’s groundless imposition of sanctions and responsibility for assassinations and bombings inside Iran. Continuing into the worst pandemic in a century, sanctions keep out medicines and vaccines. Iran’s rejection of an American NGO’s donation of US vaccines tells much of its predisposition toward warmer ties with Washington.
Second, the leadership has long justified itself as standing up to the United States and its regional allies, especially Saudi Arabia and Israel. Warming up to Washington after the pain of the last four years, or more, would anger many Iranians and bring sharp divisions in the elite, especially the IRGC which is angry over Soleimani’s assassination and eager for vengeance.
Third, Tehran is convinced that anti-Iran sentiment is deeply entrenched in American think tanks, lobbies, and Congress. Whatever cordiality may be negotiated this year is likely to be done away sooner later. Biden cannot guarantee continuity any more than Obama could. American public opinion can be orchestrated and one election is all it takes.
Alignment with Russia and China
Iran has given up on the US and is looking for ties with countries that have enduring bases of cooperation, including, if not especially, a shared hostility to the US. Iran, Russia, and China are all highly authoritarian and all see democracy as causing turmoil and decadence in the West. Russia and Iran cooperate on oil quotas and China buys all it can. Further, Iran is looking to modernize its military with Russian and Chinese equipment.
All three wish to see American power in the world fade, as Britain’s did seventy-five years ago. Revenge figures highly in their motivations: Iran for the sanctions and attacks, Russia for NATO’s eastward expansion, and China for blocking its dominance in East Asia. The US is overextended, deep in debt, and riven by domestic troubles. Iran, Russia, and China want to further weaken the US and bring about a new era. China must have a Clare Boothe Luce.
Iran’s regional goals
Russia and China might not support every item in Iran’s agenda for the region. Iran will have to pursue them largely alone. All three want the US to quit Iraq, not so of other items on Iran’s list.
Tehran wants US troops out of Iraq. Since Soleimani’s assassination, Shia-backed militias have been firing rockets at US military personnel and contractors. IRGC officers are using their clout with dozens of Shia parties to build a majority that will one day order the US to leave, just as one did ten years ago.
A second departure would not likely be honorable. Iran et al will try to make it as embarrassing as possible – something akin to Hueys hurriedly lifting off from an embassy rooftop. It would underscore the waste of the last eighteen years, cut off the US position in eastern Syria, and signal declining US influence. It would, however, help the ISIL resurgence in western Iraq, though Iran may well consider this an acceptable tradeoff and a manageable burden.
Iran has fared well in Yemen. Its Houthi allies, with relatively little help, have held back Sunni drives from the south and mauled Saudi troops along the northern border. Iran wants to consolidate a Shia state in Yemen, not far from a Shia region in Saudi Arabia. The aim would not be to invade the kingdom. It would be to establish a reliable, militarily-proven ally that could harass Saudi Arabia with border skirmishes and rocket-drone attacks.
This would set the stage for a deal: no Houthi attacks on the kingdom, no Saudi-backed attacks on Iran. It would be a boon to Iran, an embarrassment to Saudi Arabia.
Syria is Iran’s only significant regional ally. But it’s been devastated by a decade of civil war, sectarian hatreds remain intense, and Turkey and the US are occupying swathes of the country. Iran wants Syria an effective ally again. It also wants to maintain a military presence in the Levant and aid in Syria’s economic recovery. This is the most daunting of Iran’s regional goals. Israel and the US want Iran out of Syria and Russia, unwilling to displease Israel, will not press hard to help Iran stay in the Levant. That will make Iraq and Yemen all the more pressing in Tehran.
© 2021 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.