Brian M Downing
The monarchies in opposition
The Saudi monarchy adamantly opposed creation of a Jewish state. Abdul Aziz made that clear to FDR when they met on a US warship in the Suez Canal back in early 1945. Nonetheless, the US recognized the new state soon after it declared independence in 1948. As more Gulf states became free of foreign rule, their princes also opposed Israel, albeit diplomatically and financially. Their armies remained at home.
Israel from its inception was closely aligned with Iran as both opposed Sunni powers. The partnership kept Iraqi and other Sunni armies from large-scale participation with Egyptian and Syrian forces in ’67 and ’73. Iran kept pressure on Arab countries to its west and allowed Israel to use its territory to train Iraqi Kurds who tied down tens of thousands of Iraqi troops.
The monarchies in alignment
The Khomeini revolution (1979) jarred the region, especially the Sunni monarchies. A seemingly powerful shah had been overthrown by a popular uprising, despite the ruler’s large and well-appointed repressive capacity. What happened to the shah might well happen to them.
Khomeini’s call for popular revolt against secular and decadent rulers worsened things. The princes did not support Saddam Hussein’s plan to attack Iran but once he went in and the offensive stalled, they fell in line behind him for fear of victorious Iranian troops sweeping west and south.
Despite the rise of Islamist rule in Iran, Israel remained supportive – Iraq was still a significant threat to both. Israel supported Iran during the Iraq war (1980-88). It maintained Iranian Phantoms and Tomcats and convinced Washington to provide SAM and antitank missiles. Geopolitics triumphed over ideology.
Estrangement came after Saddam’s army was destroyed in the 1991 Gulf war and it no longer posed a threat to Israel. Furthermore, Iran extended its influence in the region by supporting the Shia of Lebanon and their political-military movement, Hisbollah.
Israeli leaders, initially Rabin and Labor but carried through by Netanyahu and Likud, engineered a momentous geopolitical shift. The Sunni princes abandoned decades of hostility and aligned with Israel against Iran. The strange bedfellows today cooperate against Iran’s nuclear program, its presence in Syria and Lebanon, and probably in supporting separatist and terrorist groups inside Iran. Geopolitics triumphed over ideology one again.
Benefits to Israel
Israel’s border areas with Egypt and Jordan are even more secure than before. Both states have signed peace agreements with Israel but that could change one day, perhaps triggered by a faltering US. Egypt and Jordan rely on Saudi subsidies for their budgets, tranquility, and repressive capacity. They cannot wage war without Russian hardware or Sunni money – useful protection in case of American unreliability.
Israel can expand its control over the West Bank without significant opposition from the monarchies, who historically have championed the Palestinians and supported their terrorist operations. The Palestinian cause is fast becoming a lost one.
Trade follows the flag. Israel’s respect and influence are growing in a once hostile region. Cooperation on Iran is setting the stage for working together on Saudi Arabia’s ambitious industrialization program and on thriving trade relations, though this remains to be seen.
As with Israel’s Russian diplomacy, the Sunni policy shows remarkable strategic vision and perseverance. However, it may well lead to serious problems as Saudi Arabia under Mohammed bin Salman becomes more powerful, ambitious, and perhaps vengeful – the focus of the next article in this series.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.