Brian M Downing
Libya is divided between a western region based in Tripoli and an east based in Benghazi. Each side has considerable foreign support – diplomatic and military. Last year the warlord of eastern Libya, Khalifa Haftar, launched an offensive to take the western capital, Tripoli.
The capital’s defenders, a miscellany of rivalrous militias, found sudden unity and had the advantage of fighting from defensive positions. They were also helped by Syrian fighters sent by Turkey. Haftar, for his part, has also benefited from foreign assistance, including Russian mercenaries, but he was stopped and his troops are pulling back.
The Libyan conflict is part of a larger competition for power – actually two competitions. One is between Saudi Arabia and its allies on one hand and Turkey, Iran, and the Muslim Brotherhood on the other. The second is a contest between the US and Russia for influence with Turkey.
The Saudi Arabia-Turkey context
Saudi Arabia has long funded schools, mosques, armies, and governments throughout the Islamic world. It’s an effort to build a league of states directed from Riyadh. Ambitious Islamic leaders once sent their armies to win empire, the Saudi princes send money.
Riyadh attaches significance to Libya as it has considerable oil wealth and a small population that can be important to the Saudi league. The UAE, Egypt, and Russia are on their side. Riyadh wants to ensure that Libya doesn’t fall into the hands of rivals.
Turkey, Iran, Qatar, and the international Muslim Brotherhood want Libya in their sphere. They are concerned by rising Saudi power in Egypt, Pakistan, Jordan, and several smaller Gulf states as well. They see Saudi Arabia as the US once saw the Soviet Union – a dangerous expansionist power that had to be checked.
Saudi Arabia and its allies back Haftar in eastern Libya. Turkey, Iran, Qatar, and the MB support western Libya. Each side sends money, arms, and sometimes troops to Libyan allies.
The US-Russia context
The US and Russia are also involved in Libya, though the division isn’t neat and clean. The US purports to back the west, which has a frail representative government, but has not been demonstratively opposed to Haftar.
The two powers are vying for influence in Ankara. Turkey is a long-standing member of NATO with a large army and a location between Russia and the Middle East. There is probably no more important objective to Moscow than weakening NATO and American influence.
Though enemies since the days of the Ottomans and Romanovs, Turkey and Russia have in recent years moved closer. Ankara is triangulating between Washington and Moscow, keeping each on its toes for fear of losing out to the other. Turkey buys Russian oil and arms and cooperates on matters along the Turkish-Syrian border.
However, they are on opposite sides in Libya. Russia backs eastern Libya and when its army drove on Tripoli, with Russian mercenary ground troops, Turkey hastily assembled Syrian mercenaries and sent them to defend Tripoli. Something had to give.
Putin acts
In recent days Moscow has made two moves. First, it’s ordered the withdrawal of Russian grounds troops from the approaches to Tripoli. Second, Moscow has deployed fighter jets to Libya. What’s behind these seemingly contradictory moves? There are two possibilities.
First, the Russian aircraft will act as they did in Syria – pulverizing enemy positions and making for less costly ground operations. Tripoli, then, will be heavily bombed and Haftar’s troops, perhaps with redeployed Russian mercs, will move in, as Syrian forces did in Aleppo and other cities now in ruins.
That would humiliate and greatly anger Turkey. The inroads Russia made would disappear in a flash. What’s more important in Moscow, Turkey or Libya? Putin is not a fool.
The second possibility is that Putin is no longer supportive of a unified Libya under Haftar and will hold him to positions in the east. The region has oil assets and export terminals; it’s no booby prize. Putin will accept a separate government in the west, aligned with Turkey and another ally, Iran.
What then of the Russian fighter jets on desert tarmacs? They are there not to expand Haftar’s power in Libya but to expand Russia’s might in the Mediterranean. Eastern Libya will be home to a Russian airbase, complementing the one well underway in Syria. Look for a Russian naval facility in Benghazi or Tobruk – or both.
© 2020 Brian M Downing
Brian M Downing is a national security analyst who’s written for outlets across the political spectrum. He studied at Georgetown University and the University of Chicago, and did post-graduate work at Harvard’s Center for International Affairs. Thanks as ever to Susan Ganosellis.